731
FNUS73 KABR 200330
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Larson Slough GPA...State of South Dakota
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1030 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 CDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at the Larson Slough GPA
site.  Given the history of these storms, and that they are
weakening, it is estimated that around 0.30 inches of rain will
fall through 0200 Monday. Winds will remain out of the northwest
during much of the daytime hours Monday, relative humidity falling
to near 50 percent. A widespread rain is expected during the day
Tuesday, with rainfall amounts 0.50 to around 1 inch.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers,
                    diminishing to a chance of rain showers
                    through 0200. Chance of thunderstorms until 0200.
CWR.................52 percent decreasing to 4 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................3, diminishing to 1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 13 mph shifting to the west 6
                    to 7 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms through 0200.
Mixing height.......400-600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph shifting to the northwest 9
                    to 12 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 91  82  74  61  65  58
Weather cov.....DEF CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).90  30  20  10  10  10  10
Temp............60  59  57  55  54  53  53
RH..............75  78  86  96  100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  S   W   W
20 FT wind spd..13  10  9   8   7   6   7
20 FT wind gust.17  16  15  14  13  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    north around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (56300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  73  77  75  75  75  72  64  58  53  55  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............51  53  53  54  57  59  61  63  64  65  65  66
RH..............100 100 100 96  83  78  70  62  60  56  54  50
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  12  13  14  15  15  15  15  14  14
20 FT wind gust.14  15  16  17  20  20  22  22  22  22  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
CWR.................6 percent increasing to 17 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 9 to 12 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500-3800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 14 mph shifting to the northeast 12
                    to 17 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69  63  62  74  81  88  80  81  81  89  92  94
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  30  30  40  30  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............65  64  61  59  56  55  54  53  52  52  51  51
RH..............52  54  62  67  72  74  80  80  86  86  86  86
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..14  13  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  12
20 FT wind gust.21  20  18  17  16  15  15  15  15  16  17  18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...KF
Requested by...Zac Hook
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414692.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachariah.hook@state.sd.us