102
FNUS73 KABR 200336
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Gerkin GPA...State of South Dakota
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1036 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2200 CDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have nearly ended at the
Gerkin GPA site, with additional rainfall remaining light. A radar
estimated 0.13 to 0.20 inches of rain has fallen this evening.
Winds out of the northwest will switch out of the north Monday
morning, with gusts near 20 mph and relative humidity falling
to near 50 percent. A widespread rain is expected during the day
Tuesday, with rainfall amounts 0.40 to 0.90 inches.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms
                    this evening.early. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the evening. Slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the evening.
CWR.................47 percent decreasing to 1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph late in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 6 to 10
                    mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......400-700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 10 mph shifting to the north 10 to 16
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 89  76  63  50  53  41  50
Weather cov.....LKY SCH
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60  20  10  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  62  61  59  55  55  53  52
RH..............67  72  75  83  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..E   VRB VRB VRB NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   3   2   3   6   7   8   10
20 FT wind gust.12  10  9   10  12  13  14  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......600-4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (52500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  57  68  57  53  55  51  60  68  69  65  69
Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20
Temp............52  51  52  55  58  61  63  65  67  67  67  68
RH..............100 100 100 90  80  72  67  60  54  54  52  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  13  13  13  14  14  14  14  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.17  20  20  21  21  20  20  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    likely overnight.
CWR.................7 percent increasing to 35 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400-4400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69  71  79  83  78  72  85  90  95  94  92  91
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  40  40  50  50  50  60  50  50  60  60
Temp............66  66  63  60  56  55  54  53  52  52  51  50
RH..............54  54  60  67  77  80  80  83  86  86  93  96
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.17  17  16  15  15  15  15  15  16  17  18  20
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 3.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...KF
Requested by...Zac Hook
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414690.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachariah.hook@state.sd.us