Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
775
FNAK51 PAFC 271228
FWFAER
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Wet weather is expected to continue through at least mid-week for
much of southcentral Alaska. Confidence is increasing that
rainfall (/high elevation snow) will spread across the Copper
River Basin today. Ensemble probabilities suggest most of the area
from along the Richardson Highway and east to the CA border will
easily receive over 0.10" of rainfall, with many places likely to
pick up around a half inch by the end of Tuesday.
Rainfall becomes more sparse farther west. The Talkeetnas,
Chugach, and Kenai Mountains will all likely pick up some
rainfall.. with valley locations receiving more isolated shower
coverage with daytime instability. First, this morning, a band of
precip stretches from the Mat Valley south through Anchorage and
a bit into the Kenai Peninsula. Much of these areas have already
picked up between one and two tenths of rain this morning. The
band will very gradually pivot and diminish through the day.
The probability for thunderstorms is very low, but not completely
zero. The best chance for convection (and thus tstorms) will be
across the northern Susitna Valley today and the northern Copper
River Basin tomorrow as breaks in cloud cover will lead to some
marginal instability. Probability and coverage is too low to
warrant increased LALs at this time.
-Brown
AKZ101-280215-
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...EKLUTNA
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.ABOVE 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 80 40 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 41-47 (-11) 40 (0) 49
RH % (24H TREND) 69-86 (+27) 98 (+3) 62-78
20FTWND(MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 2-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3076 3131
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 7 S 8
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 18396 21084
CWR 70 10 10
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 30 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 56 (-6) 46 (-1) 58
RH % (24H TREND) 59-68 (+18) 91 (+3) 52-59
20FTWND(MPH) S 0-6 SW 0-7 W 2-6
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3465 3606
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 7 SW 6
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 20235 19620
CWR 70 10 10
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
AKZ111-280215-
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.ABOVE 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 80 60 40
TEMP (24H TREND) 46 (-8) 39 (-1) 43-50
RH % (24H TREND) 73-85 (+24) 95 (0) 64-79
20FTWND(MPH) W 1-5 SW 1-7 W 2-6
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3056 3758
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SW 7 W 7
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 18276 21944
CWR 70 10 10
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 50 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 56 (-7) 46 (-1) 59
RH % (24H TREND) 60-71 (+21) 92 (0) 49-61
20FTWND(MPH) S 1-6 S 1-6 SW 3-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3811 4526
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SW 7 SW 6
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 26199 30480
CWR 70 10 10
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
AKZ121-280215-
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.INLAND AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 40 40
TEMP (24H TREND) 48-56 (-5) 43 (-1) 49-57
RH % (24H TREND) 60-72 (+14) 92 (+2) 55-67
20FTWND(MPH) SW 1-5 S 1-6 N 2-6
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3706 4127
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SW 6 NE 7
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 25136 33255
CWR 10 0 0
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.COASTAL AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS NONE SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 0 20
TEMP (24H TREND) 56 (-1) 43 (-2) 50-56
RH % (24H TREND) 58-66 (+2) 85-93 (+2) 54-68
20FTWND(MPH) SW 4-11 SW 5-12 W 1-9
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3585 3884
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SW 9 SW 8
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 28811 31920
CWR 0 0 0
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
AKZ125-280215-
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.INLAND AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 60 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 40-49 (-6) 39 (-1) 43-53
RH % (24H TREND) 68-77 (+16) 94 (+4) 61-75
20FTWND(MPH) S 1-6 S 1-5 SE 3-9
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 1873 2806
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 6 SE 9
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 9878 23733
CWR 30 10 0
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.COASTAL AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 90 70 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 40-48 (-6) 35-41 (-1) 42-49
RH % (24H TREND) 66-79 (+9) 91-97 (+7) 74-84
20FTWND(MPH) S 1-5 SW 1-5 S 1-6
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 1449 1804
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 6 S 7
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 7754 12628
CWR 10 10 0
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
AKZ141-280215-
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...PAXSON...SLANA
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.ABOVE 2500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
PRECIP TYPE SNOW/RAIN SNOW/RAIN SNOW/RAIN
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 90 100 90
TEMP (24H TREND) 33-45 (-6) 28-36 (+1) 32-47
RH % (24H TREND) 66-85 (+15) 89-95 (+1) 61-86
20FTWND(MPH) W 3-11 W 3-11 W 3-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3568 5314
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)W 9 W 8
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 41498 42588
CWR 50 50 60
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...Chance of wetting rain near 100 percent along and east of
the Richardson Highway.
.BELOW 2500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
PRECIP TYPE RAIN RAIN RAIN
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 100 100 80
TEMP (24H TREND) 54 (-7) 42 (+1) 54
RH % (24H TREND) 51-70 (+16) 88-95 (0) 57-71
20FTWND(MPH) S 4-9 SW 3-9 S 3-10
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3812 3827
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SW 9 SW 9
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 38114 30464
CWR 70 80 50
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...Chance of wetting rain near 100 percent along and east of
the Richardson Highway.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
AKZ145-280215-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW
428 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024
.ABOVE 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 50 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 44-52 (-5) 40 (0) 45-54
RH % (24H TREND) 62-76 (+25) 88-94 (+3) 56-71
20FTWND(MPH) SW 4-11 SW 4-11 SW 3-10
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3870 5446
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)W 7 SW 7
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 40227 40554
CWR 10 10 0
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 30 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 59 (-6) 44 (-2) 60
RH % (24H TREND) 53-63 (+20) 93 (+1) 47-58
20FTWND(MPH) S 3-8 S 4-10 S 3-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5401 4994
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SW 8 S 6
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 38917 34076
CWR 10 0 0
LAL 1 1 1
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$