Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
669 FXAK69 PAFG 241224 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 424 AM AKDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous rain showers will continue over the Interior today becoming more scattered this afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms also possible Northway to Eagle and around Tanana. Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior this weekend with continued wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. Over the Brooks Range, snow and blowing snow expected with several inches possible over the Eastern Brooks Range through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Upper low over the Bering will drop south and into the Gulf of AK on Saturday. An Arctic low will push across the Brooks Range over the weekend and move near the Seward Penn on Sunday. This low will will continue to retrograde over the Bering Strait on Monday. Weak easterly waves will continue to move over the Eastern Interior through the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior... Rain showers will persist into Friday along with a downtrend in high temps through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms also possible Northway to Eagle and around Tanana. Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior this weekend with continued wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. West Coast and Western Interior... The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool through the end of the week. Showers will persist over the west coast and inland areas around a low pressure center in the Bering. A stronger short wave will move from the High Arctic to near Utqiagvik Sat night and then drop south over NW AK on Sun and over the Seward Penn on Monday. This will bring much cooler temps to the West Coast Sun into Mon. Strong northerly winds will develop in the Bering Strait late Fri night into Saturday with near gale force winds over the water. North Slope and Brooks Range... Easterly winds will become stronger from Point Lay west to Point Hope Friday into Saturday. A weather system will bring snow to the Brooks Range Passes Thursday night into Saturday. Snow showers are expected to develop over the Eastern North Slope late tonight and continue into Saturday night. Between 4 and 6 inches of snow is expected, with the heaviest snow falling between Friday night and Saturday night. Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph on Friday over Brooks Range Passes producing low visibility in snow and blowing snow and drifting snow. This could make travel over Atigun Pass difficult Friday night into Saturday night. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Numerous showers will continue over the Interior this morning and into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms between Eagle, Tanana and Galena. Isolated thunderstorms near McGrath on Sat. Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior this weekend with continued wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. Cool temps through the weekend, warming back up into the 60s early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... The break up front is now moving through the Yukon Delta. Ice has jammed up near Emmonak and water has risen rapidly there. Water is now rising fast at Emmonak and is flooding low lying areas, including the road to the airport. The staff gage at the power plant now reads 2 ft. No structures are flooded as of 8am Thursday, but that could change as water continues to rise. Flooding is expected soon at Alakanuk and Nunam Iqua. Water can rise rapidly. A flood Watch remains for Kotlik where ice has also jammed up with high water, but no flooding was occuring this morning. There is still as risk of flooding at Kotlik should the ice shift and push water towards the town. People in all these areas should move themselves and their valuables to higher ground. The water levels on the Porcupine River at Old Crow rose dramatically last weekend due to heavy snowmelt and remain high. This high water is expected to reach Ft Yukon between today and Friday, with water levels peaking at Ft Yukon over the weekend. This high water will gradually fill sloughs and swales east of Ft Yukon late this week and could bring flooding into Ft Yukon this weekend with high water continuing into next week. A flood watch is valid for Ft Yukon through next week Wed. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825. Flood Watch for AKZ833. Flood Warning for AKZ825. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-854-857-858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. && $$