Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
495 FXAK69 PAFG 012105 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 105 PM AKDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A beautiful day across much of the Interior today with highs reaching the mid 70s, light winds along with a few showers and storms. The West Coast comes with highs in the 60s to near 70 in the Interior with isolated showers and storms over the higher terrain. Otherwise coastal areas away from the Bering Strait coast will be around the mid 50s to 60 while the Bering Strait Coast sits around freezing. The North Slope will hang around freezing with stratus, fog and light snow developing after midnight. Heavier snow looks to move in tomorrow night with accumulations likely. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Level Analysis... The 12Z models initialized well aloft with a front lifting through the Brooks Range, a shortwave trough dropping south into the North Slope, a low in the Aleutians and a low in the Gulf of Alaska. The front over the Brooks Range moves north tonight and interacts with the trough dropping south over the North Slope resulting in an outbreak of precipitation tonight, especially south and east of Utqiagvik. Looking south, the low in the Aleutians will shift east into the Gulf of Alaska and thrown into Southeast AK with shortwaves moving north and west through the Interior tomorrow and next week. West Coast and Western Interior... A beautiful day over the West Coast and Western Interior today. There will be a few showers and an isolated storm possible over the higher terrain. Coastal areas remain dry with mixed clouds and sun over most spots, though the Bering Strait south will have stratus clouds overhead. Northerly winds will pick up this afternoon with gale force gusts possible in Kivalina tonight, but more likely from Shishmaref to the Bering Strait Coast through St. Lawrence Island tomorrow before weakening overnight. Tomorrow will be a bit more interesting in the Interior with showers and storms developing in southwest AK around McGrath by midday then extend north to Ruby and northeast to the Brooks Range. These storms gradually move west towards Holy Cross and Huslia late overnight with mostly rain showers from Ambler south on Monday. Any thunderstorm can come with lightning, briefly heavy rain, small hail (<= 1/2 inch in diameter) and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph. Central and Eastern Interior... Warm and sunny conditions are expected beneath a building ridge. Isolated thunderstorms will be mainly confined to higher terrain and much more isolated today than the past few days. On Sunday a shortwave trough from the east will bring a round of locally heavy showers and widely scattered thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures. The area of focus for precipitation and thunderstorms looks to be from McGrath to Tanana and north along the Elliott and Dalton Highway corridor. Precipitation amounts could approach one half inch in areas that see the strongest storms and/or multiple storms. The Southeast Interior through Fairbanks looks to be spared by most showers and thunderstorms. Monday will bring more showers and thunderstorms, with the wetter pattern continuing through much of next week. North Slope and Brooks Range... Stratus and patchy fog continue this afternoon along the Arctic Coast and Plain. Light snow is expected to begin tonight in the Central Brooks Range as an Arctic trough digs south. A more well defined convergence zone will develop on Sunday, bringing heavier snowfall to the Central Brooks Range and accumulating snow as far north as the Arctic Coast. Expect 2 to 4 inches of snow from Anaktuvuk Pass to Sag DOT Camp, about 2 to 3 inches north of there to the Arctic Coast, and up to 6 inches over Atigun Pass. Northerly winds will also increase in the Passes with gusts up to 35 mph possible Sunday night in Anaktuvuk Pass and gusts to 25 mph in Atigun Pass. This may result in areas of blowing snow, but temperatures will be relatively mild around 28-32F resulting in a wet snow and limited blowing/drifting. One interesting, not necessarily impactful note is there will also be a chance for thunder-snow Sunday night in Atigun Pass. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Near Red Flag conditions are expected today across the Middle Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats with high temperatures approaching 75 degrees and minimum relative humidities dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range. Expecting winds to remain below 15 mph for most of the area, but gusts as high as 35 mph are possible near and south of Delta Junction through this evening, then weaken tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected northeast of Huslia today as shortwave energy from yesterday remains. Across the rest of the Interior, thunderstorm activity will be lower beneath a ridge building in from the northeast. On Sunday, a shortwave trough from the east will cause increased thunderstorm activity as well as locally heavy showers. The focus of the thunderstorms looks to be from McGrath to Tanana and north along the Elliott and Dalton Highway corridor. Temperatures will be cooler and RHs a bit wetter on Sunday. Additional shortwaves from the east embedded in a very persistent pattern will bring more showers and thunderstorms into next week. && .HYDROLOGY...The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Gale Warning for PKZ806-854-856. Gale Warning for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-817-850-851-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858. Gale Warning for PKZ816. && $$ Bianco