Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
389 FXAK69 PAFG 221205 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 405 AM AKDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures remain above seasonal norms for the Interior into Wednesday, then things cool down with rain showers likely on Thursday. Break- up continues over the Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon, and breaking is beginning over parts of the N Slope, as well. Snowmelt flooding will be a concern over the Yukon Flats along the Porcupine River in the coming days. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... There is a 525 dam low over the Bering Sea with shortwaves rotating northward bringing showers to the west coast. Chinook flow will weaken over the ALaska Range this morning. As the upper level low moves inland tonight a shortwave will rotate across the Interior on Thursday bringing showers to the Eastern Interior. Another low will move into Bristol Bay late Thu into Friday. Central and Eastern Interior... Chinook flow will weaken this morning. Cancelled the wind advisory for Delta Junction and kept wind advisories out for the passes through Noon. Numerous rain showers will develop Wed evening and into Thursday, but the models are trending for the highest pops to be over the Eastern Interior and higher elvations north of Fairbanks. Showers persist into Friday along with a downtrend in high temps through Friday. Highs in the 60s for Wednesday then in the 50s for Thursday, then slightly warmer on Friday. The threat of thunderstorms is low for the Interior through Friday. West Coast and Western Interior... The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool through the end of the week. Showers will persist over the west coast and inland areas around a low pressure center in the Bering. Another front brings more rain to the SW Coast and Lower Yukon Thu night and Fri. Three day total rainfall amounts will be rather light, with around 0.5 inches on the lower Yukon to 0.25 inches or less further north. Strong northerly winds will develop in the Bering Strait late Fri night into Saturday with near gale force winds over the water. North Slope and Brooks Range... Stratus, fog, periodic snow showers and east winds will dominate for the next several days. The crest of the Brooks Range will see increased chances for rain (snow above 2500 feet by Wed night) showers midweek and beyond as an arctic front stalls over the mountains. Easterly winds will become stronger from Point Lay west to Point Hope Friday into Saturday. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Chinook flow will weaken this morning and a cooling trend expected for the Interior in the short term. Scattered to numerous showers expected on Thursday over the Eastern Intrior with cooler temps into Fri. Right now, no thunderstorm chances are anticipated, although there is a less than 5 percent chance on Thu along the ALCAN. && .HYDROLOGY... Lower Yukon break-up continues as running ice and high water remain at St Mary`s, Pitkas Point and Mountain Village and a ice jam flood watch remains for those areas through Thursday. The break up front is now downstream of Mountain Village and will likely get to the Yukon Delta at Alakanuk, Emmonak, Nunam Iqua and Kotlik sometime between late tonight and Fri, bringing the risk of ice jam flooding to those areas tonight through Fri. Flood watches are out for all these areas. The water levels along the Porcupine River at the Border rose to record levels over the weekend due to heavy snowmelt. This high water is expected to reach Ft Yukon on Wed, where it will gradually fills sloughs and swales east of Ft Yukon and eventually bring high water into Ft Yukon late this week with high water continuing into next week. A flood watch is valid front this Wed through next week Wed. There are no new reports about the Buckland River, but there was a reported ice jam downstream of Buckland a couple days ago with rising water levels. We will continue to monitor. Rivers on the North Slope are beginning to flow with water flowing over ice with some open water areas. Those area will continue to see increasing melt this week. && && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849. Flood Watch for AKZ825. Flood Watch for AKZ833. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861. && $$