892
FXAK69 PAFG 191015
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 AM AKDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dousing of wet weather will impact the E Alaska Range and SE
Interior later today and tonight. Elsewhere, just some isolated
showers possible over Interior locations. Expansive stratus and
fog will plague the Arctic Coast and N Slope the next several
days. Unsettled weather moves back into the West Coast Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a dynamic 528 dam mobile trough moving into the Gulf of
Alaska with an associated 1001 mb surface low near Kodiak Island.
There is weak ridging over the Brooks Range with a 532 arctic
low over E Siberia. There is a weak 1008 mb thermal trough across
the S Interior.

Model Discussion...
Models are in very good agreement for the next few days with
minimal discrepancy. The hi-res models were favored for winds with
a blend of models for QPF/POPS. We will maintain the ongoing
forecast with minimal changes to prior thinking.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temps continue to run slightly above seasonal norms and will
continue to do so for the next few days for most of the Interior.
The exception will be today over the SE Interior where heavy rain
showers will develop over the SE Interior to the E Alaska Range
and produce up to 0.4 to 1.00 inches. Snow levels will be around
2500-3000 feet with heavy snow over the higher elevation areas in
the E Alaska Range. Because of the low snow levels, significant
and rapid runoff should not be a problem, but there will be stream
rises. Over the remainder of the Interior, there will be shower
chances as far NW as the White Mtns and into the Fairbanks area
this afternoon. After today, weather looks demure with a front
moving in later Tuesday, which will ramp up Alaska Range gap winds
to 45+ mph. Tuesday may be the warmest day of the next few with
chinook winds helping to raise temps into the low 70s across the E
Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Fairly benign weather through Monday with isolated to scattered
showers. The next front moves in Monday evening through Tuesday
and will bring more rain to the region with some snow over the
Bering coastal regions. The front moves inland Tuesday and showers
and cloudy weather persist through midweek. Expect breezy
conditions with the front with east-southeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Extensive stratus and fog will plague the region for the next
several days as the arctic high remains strong and east-northeast
winds dominate. Expect winds to peak at 20 to 30 mph today then
gradually wane.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended range forecast beginning Wednesday looks messy, with
a large upper trough over the West Coast and Interior gradually
weakening and shifting southeast. Another large trough moves into
the Bering Sea and eventually West Coast late week which means it
looks cloudier with shots for showers over the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunder today will be relegated to the Fortymile Uplands.
Decent chance for heavier wetting rains (and snow) over the E
Alaska Range and down to the SE Interior. Drier out west for a
couple days with another moist front moving in Mon night and Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning is out for the Yukon River near Pilot Station due
to an ice jam, and a flood watch for the Yukon River to St.
Mary`s. Concern will likely continue downstream for ice jams as
ice remains thick. Water is also backing up along the Buckland
River due an ice jam upstream of Buckland. This area will be
monitored for possible flooding. Elsewhere, there will be up to an
inch of rainfall (mixed snow above 2500 feet) over the E Alaska
Range late this afternoon through Monday afternoon. No concerns at
this time for this rainfall/snowfall.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ826.
     Flood Warning for AKZ826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher