852
FXAK69 PAFG 262154
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level energy moves across the southeast Interior today and
Monday bringing another round of wetting rains to that area.
Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon along the AlCan
border between Eagle and Northway. On the west coast, precip
largely confined to areas north and northeast of the Seward
Peninsula, with light accumulating snow possible into Monday along
the Bering Strait Coast and from Red Dog Mine to the Upper Kobuk
Valley. Snow showers continue along the Arctic Coast and Brooks
Range, tapering off Monday. Temperatures begin their upward climb.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, broad upper level troughing continue to
encompass much of mainland Alaska. A 528 dam (decameter) low
centered near Noorvik this afternoon tracks westward to the
Chukchi Sea northwest of Shishmaref Monday afternoon and over the
northern Chukotsk Peninsula Tuesday. A 532 dam low in the
southeastern Gulf of Alaska slowly rotates eastwards towards
southeast Alaska through Tuesday, while a 532 dam low near the
southern Kamchatka Peninsula tracks eastward along the Aleutians.
Weak shortwave energy will push across the southeast Interior
through Monday, while a stronger shortwave trough surges northwest
across the northern Interior, eastern and central Brooks Range,
and then the western Arctic Coast Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. Behind the shortwave, ridging builds in over the
northeastern portion of the state.

The 26/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and are
in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through
Tuesday. There are some minor differences in placement and timing
of shortwaves moving over the eastern Interior. Largest model
differences today are in the placement and amounts of precip with
the shortwave energy over southeast Alaska today and Monday, with
the NAM remaining the outlier. Opted to largely retain the
inherited pops and QPF for that region, as they are a good
representation of a model blend, with only minor edits Continued
the trend of leaning towards the NAM and hi-res models for winds.

At the surface, a 1030 mb 375 NM northwest of Utqiagvik continues
northeast through Monday afternoon to be a 1027 mb high 100 NM
west of Banks Island. A 1010 mb low develops near Noorvik tonight
lifting northwest across Kotzebue Sound to be 50 NM northeast of
Shishmaref Monday morning, continuing northwest to be 175 NM west
of Point Hope by Tuesday morning. A thermal trough stretches from
Northway to McGrath this afternoon moving to Eagle to Fairbanks to
McGrath on Monday, persisting into Tuesday. A weak trough pushes
offshore the Arctic Coast Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range... Snow showers continue today
across the Western Arctic Coast and western Brooks Range as an
upper level low continues to move southwest across the western
Brooks Range. Additional snow accumulations of up to an inch are
possible. Winds diminish in the Brooks Range passes through
tonight. East to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph persist across
the coast through Monday, diminishing Tuesday as a weak trough
pushes offshore. Temperatures trend upwards.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Cooler temperatures persist through Monday, especially along the
coast, where highs will largely top out in the 30s, as an upper
level low moves across Kotzebue Sound and into the Chukchi Sea.
Temperatures begin to warm Monday across the Western Interior with
highs in the 50s. By Tuesday, temperatures warm into 60s across
the Western Interior and into the 40s to near 50 along the
southern coast, while along the Bering Strait Coast north to
Kivalina, highs will top out in the 30s to low 40s. Drier
conditions anticipated through mid-week, with most precip confined
to those areas from the northern Seward Peninsula east to the
Upper Kobuk Valley and north. Accumulating snow possible from the
Bering Strait Coast and from Red Dog Mine to the Upper Kobuk
Valley, snow accumulations up to 2 inches tonight through Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
An upper level disturbance moving across the southeast Interior
through Monday will bring another round of rain, some locally
heavy, to the Upper Tanana Valley, eastern Alaska Range, and
Fortymile. Isolated thunderstorms possible today along the AlCan
border between Northway and Eagle. On Monday afternoon,
thunderstorm potential is very low, but a stray thunderstorm or
two are possible east of a line from Arctic Village and between
Eagle and Northway to Fort Yukon. On Tuesday, isolated
thunderstorms possible east of a line from Circle to Dot Lake.
Elsewhere in the Central and Eastern Interior conditions will be
drier, with only isolated showers anticipated. Warmer trend ensues
this week as highs climb back into the mid 60s by Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble means
remain in good agreement and continue to indicate ridging building
across northern and central mainland Alaska during the extended
forecast period through much of the upcoming week. This will lead
to a warming trend with potentially above normal temperatures.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms not out of the
question at times along the thermal trough. By the weekend though
possible Arctic energy begins to move in.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer temperatures return early next week. An upper level
disturbance moving across the southeast Interior today and Monday
will bring another round of wetting rains to that area, elsewhere
in the Central and Eastern Interior conditions will be drier.
Isolated thunderstorms possible today and Monday along the AlCan
border between Northway and Eagle. On Monday afternoon,
thunderstorm potential is very low, but a stray thunderstorm or
two are possible east of a line from Arctic Village and between
Eagle and Northway to Fort Yukon. On Tuesday, isolated
thunderstorms possible east of a line from Circle to Dot Lake. Out
west, drier conditions will prevail, with most precip confined
north and northeast of the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At Fort Yukon, conditions have improved with an observer reporting
that the water level was dropping and had dropped 1 foot since
yesterday. Water is expected to fall through next week.

The ice jam near Kotlik released yesterday afternoon with ice
quickly flushing out. Observer reports that the river is clear of
ice and is flowing now.

Rainfall continues across the southeast Interior through the next
several days with half an inch to an inch and a half of rain over
the Upper Tanana Basin, Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. There
are no significant hydro concerns for now as rivers will rise but
remain fairly low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-817-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$