693
FXAK67 PAJK 192326
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKDT Sun May 19 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Monday night / Surface low south of Prince
William Sound will drift east to the northern panhandle by Monday
evening. Behind the main front, showers will persist with the
onshore flow, and energy about the low. As it approaches the
panhandle, the remains brings a couple bands of showers as well
caught up in the instability with the low center. Shower activity
will taper off Monday night as the energy is moved east and
southeast from the next transitory ridge located over the central
gulf by Monday night.

Overall didn`t need to make much is way of changes to the current
forecast package. Adjusts a couple of overnight lows up with cloud
cover reducing the radiational cooling. Then as was not
anticipating large scale clearing the clouds will limit the solar
heating so brought highs across the northern panhandle down
between 3 and 6 degrees, depending the locale.


.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Friday night / Active pattern set
to continue for SE Alaska for the remainder of the week. Tuesday
will see widespread clearing behind the system that brought wind
and rain through Monday, with temperatures approaching 60 as a
result of daytime heating and light winds.

The next system will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday,
with a weakening front making its way towards the panhandle
Wednesday afternoon and slowly push inland through Thursday.
Precipitation from this system is expected to be light to
moderate, with most rain coming Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. As of this forecast, model guidance continues to show a
diminishing trend in terms of winds along the front, with small
craft winds of up to 25 kt likely only along the coast with the
tightening gradient. Likewise not expecting any significant
increase in wave heights in the Gulf with this system.

Heading towards the weekend, clearing skies and drier weather once
more on Friday as another transitory ridge moves over the
Panhandle bringing onshore flow and light winds for the inner
channels.

&&

.AVIATION...Low CIGs and increased winds will continue for the
start of the TAF period as a front continues to work through the
panhandle this evening. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR with
some occasional IFR pockets. VFR conditions should continue ahead
of and behind the front with the exception of during post frontal
showers where CIGs may drop. Some LLWS has been reported this
afternoon and continues to remain possible during frontal passage.
Pireps for turbulence continue to come in as well which continues
to support the AAWU forecast of turbulence across the area.
COnditions are expected to improve during the latter half of the
TAF period with VFR conditions forecasted to move in during this
time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-032-033-053-641>644-
     661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...SF

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