838
FXAK67 PAJK 211424
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
624 AM AKDT Tue May 21 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...There is some patchy radiation
fog over the Panhandle this morning, especially over the northern
half, due to decreasing clouds, light and variable winds, and
plenty of surface moisture in place. That fog will thin out
within just a few hours of sunrise. Conditions will generally
continue to improve through the period as a ridge of high pressure
continues to build in from the west and make its transit over the
entire eastern Gulf and southeast Alaska region. Generally partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions are expected through the period.
Winds and seas over the Panhandle, Inner Channels, and the eastern
Gulf will remain rather benign through the period. Fog is
possible once again over the Panhandle tonight as the majority of
the region will have decreased cloudiness, light winds, and enough
ground moisture in place from the recent rains. Another frontal
system will approach the Panhandle Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday night / Active pattern set
to continue for SE Alaska for the remainder of the week. The next
system will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday, with a
weakening front making its way towards the panhandle Wednesday
afternoon and slowly push inland through Thursday. While not an
impressive system, tightening of the pressure gradient near shore
will still lead to winds of 25 to 30 kt for the Northern and NE gulf
coast for a time Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Consequently not expecting to see any significant wave height
increases.

Total precipitation from this system has been trending upwards
slightly, but overall is still expected to be light to moderate by
SE AK standards, with most rain coming Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Storm total QPF for the panhandle ranges from around 0.75
inches for the northern Gulf coast to around 0.5 inches from the Icy
Strait Corridor southward. Once the rain moves through and
accompanying low diminishes into a weak open trough, skies are set
to clear later in the day Thursday and into Friday. This will allow
for potential fog development in areas which can see maximized
radiational cooling in the overnight hours along with light winds.

Clearing skies on Friday means warmer temperatures once more, with
daytime highs rebounding back to upper 50s and near 60 for the
majority of the panhandle heading into Saturday. Unfortunately
unsettled weather looks to move in once more for the second half of
the holiday weekend with increasing rain chances Saturday afternoon
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Some MVFR CIGS around the region this morning and
patches of fog becoming widespread VFR SKC by Tuesday late
morning. Overcast VFR skies develop Tuesday night as our next
system slides across the Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...AP

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