965
FXAK67 PAJK 271235
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
435 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ The broad area of low
pressure over the central gulf that continues to spread various
short waves and frontal bands across the panhandle will persist
through the next 24 hours. No notably strong shortwaves or
compact lows are apparent today in either satellite or radar
imagery. The only real trend in the forecast is for conditions to
remain mostly the same with rain showers (especially over the
south) and occasionally breezy southeasterly winds through Monday
night. So minimal changes to the forecast were made overnight.
Only hazard of note is a 25 kt small craft for the Clarence Strait
area tonight as a slightly stronger short wave moves through

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Friday/ By Tuesday the unsettled
weather over the panhandle looks to be largely coming to an end as
the vertically stacked low in the Gulf continues to dissipate.
Guidance is continuing to lean more and more towards a break in
precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday with a surface ridge
building in over the panhandle. While this will lead to a shift to
onshore flow, being on the northern downstream side of the ridge
should mean any precipitation that does develop due to orographic
effects along the coast should be minimal and any showers should
be light and short lived.

After this short period of relatively dry weather, model guidance
continues to converge on a well established front pushing across the
Alaskan Gulf and impacting SE AK Friday. Some deterministic models
have tried to throw a short wave disturbance towards the panhandle
ahead of the front, but this would likely just mean a period of
potential higher shower activity for the outer coast later in the
day Thursday. With the advancing front, winds in the Gulf will
likely switch to be more out of the SE by Thursday afternoon While
exact timing remains uncertain this far out, ensemble means are
trending toward winds of at least 25 kt likely along the outer coast
ahead of the front with gales not out of the question. Depending
upon the orientation of the boundary, this would then likely lead to
close to small craft conditions for parts of the inner channels as
the front begins to push inland. This however will also depend on
the overall strength and positioning of the parent low feature in
the northwestern Gulf. Overall this will likely lead to a wet and
breezy end to the week for the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep intermittent rain and
broken to overcast skies across SE AK through the TAF period.
Anticipate marginal visual conditions with CIGs between 2000 and
5000 ft. Highest sustained winds up to 15kts and isolated gusts
up to 25kts possible between 18z-03z. Highest precipitation
chances along the coast and southern panhandle with reductions in
VSBY as low as 4-5SM within heaviest showers.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM

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