Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
184 FXAK67 PAJK 282134 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 134 PM AKDT Tue May 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Somewhat similar weather to the past few days through Wednesday night. Southerly to southwesterly onshore flow will continue to bring showers with an emphasis on the southern panhandle. Those in the northern panhandle, look for existing cloud cover to slowly erode away over the course of Tuesday afternoon and through the night. Wednesday morning, a shortwave trough looks to bring some enhanced showers to the central and southern panhandle. While the word "enhanced" was used, in this context, it is used as a small step up from the light showers currently over the panhandle. Areas of the central panhandle may see brief periods of localized moderate rainfall, around 0.05 inches per hour. .LONG TERM..../Thursday through Tuesday/...The previous day`s front will weaken over the Panhandle on Thursday as fast moving ridge moves in. Some lingering shower activity and a wind shift from southerly to northerly before the next stronger front moves in. At this time the Eastern Gulf front moves in early Friday with at least min gale force winds developing. More steady and persistent rain begins as the front moves inland along with higher QPF amounts, especially over the south. As the front`s parent low fills and moves to the N winds and rain rates diminish Saturday. However, any breaks will be very short lived as another broad surface low moves over the gulf Sunday. Beyond that, indications that the pattern will repeat as a series of surface lows move in keeping SE AK under a wet weather pattern. For the overall synoptic pattern operational and ensembles have remained in general agreement through the mid and long range. Do have timing / location differences early on. GFS/NAM have been in line and bit more consistent run to run compared to ECMWF with the Canadian being the obvious outlier. Kept with the previous forecast trend, a nudge to GFS/NAM but held off on matching those models higher wind speeds just yet. && .AVIATION.../Through Wednesday afternoon/...Broken to overcast skies persist with scattered to isolated showers that just won`t go away. The good news is, however, that CIGs are almost exclusively above 5000` based on observational data available. Additional good news is that showers will continue to slowly diminish and the high overcast will continue to thin out. Freezing level is only up to 3-4k ft, so any excursions into the overcast will likely result in some airframe icing and there have been multiple PIREPs today to verify and validate this. Reports of rime or mixed icing range from 6k and up into the flight levels. && .MARINE...Diminishing wind and sea trend continues through this afternoon to become mostly calm in the inner channels. Expect winds and seas to calm in the outer waters by Prince of Wales Island through this evening, minimizing to around speeds of 10 knots or less as the low fills. A shortwave trough then moves into the eastern gulf waters Wednesday morning. SE winds along and ahead of the trough axis will maximize to 20 knots with seas up to 7 ft, localized from Dixon Entrance to Cape Edgecombe. Behind the trough, S to SW winds up to 15 knots will replace the highest wind speeds. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...Fritsch Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau