Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
711 FXAK67 PAJK 281315 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 515 AM AKDT Tue May 28 2024 .SHORT TERM... Conditions will continue to steadily improve across the panhandle through Tuesday, paving the way for a mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday across the area, though a few showers may linger. Radar and satellite imagery indicate the continued presence of an occluding low over the SE Gulf as of the time of writing. Waves have continued to spin up around the low and move into the panhandle, but the lack of significant thermal gradients have prevented most of them from undergoing significant cyclogenesis, and anticipate this trend to continue through Tuesday. Although bands of rain showers will continue to move through the area - especially the S panhandle, expect shower coverage to be on a diminishing trend through the day as the primary low increasingly loses cohesion. By late Tuesday afternoon, chances of showers will have largely departed from the northern half of the area, though some occasional bursts of precip cannot be ruled out. This trend will continue through Tuesday night as the low finally disintegrates into an open short-wave trough as it drifts N towards the vicinity of Sitka. Only minimal changes were made to the forecast - primarily minor adjustments to temperature and some changes made to sky cover, wind speed and wind direction. .LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday/ Guidance is continuing to lean more and more towards a break in precipitation on Wednesday with a weak surface ridge building in over the panhandle. While this will lead to a shift to onshore flow, being on the northern downstream side of the ridge should mean any precipitation that does develop due to orographic effects along the coast should be minimal and any showers should be light and short lived. For Thursday however, a short wave trough will enhance the chance of showers making their way to the inside waters. After this short period of relatively drier weather, model guidance continues to converge on a well established front pushing across the Alaskan Gulf and impacting SE AK later on Friday. With the advancing front, winds in the Gulf will likely switch to be more out of the SE by Thursday morning. While exact timing remains uncertain, ensemble means are trending toward winds of around 30 to 35 kt likely along the outer coast ahead of the front Friday afternoon. Depending upon the orientation of the boundary, this will lead to small craft conditions for parts of the inner channels as the front begins to push inland, with the duration impacted by the momentum of the front. The northward momentum of the front will also depend on the overall strength and positioning of the parent low feature in the northwestern Gulf, which continues to fluctuate with consecutive model runs. Overall expect a wet and breezy end to the week for the panhandle, with rain continuing at least through Saturday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for inland TAF sites under BKN/OVC mid to upper level cloud deck. Intermittent MVFR CIGS between 2000 to 5000 ft and isolated rain showers along coastal and southern TAF sites. Strongest sustained winds expected between 5 to 15kts. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...NM Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau