545
FXAK67 PAJK 312315
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKDT Fri May 31 2024

.SHORT TERM...Diminishing gale force front currently working its
way northward through the panhandle as shown beautifully on
satellite. The southern panhandle is currently experiencing
periods of heavy rainfall mixed in with the stable moderate
rainfall, which will come to an end this evening. Replacing it
will be a relatively drier punch of air aloft which will encourage
some convective, occasional showers. The rest of the panhandle
will follow suit shortly with a conversion from stratiform to
convective showers during the overnight period with perhaps even a
glimpse of the "night" sky. Unfortunately, look for this
relatively drier period to be short-lived as another front is hot
on the heels of the current front, looking to arrive Sunday night.
Another round of rain and winds for the panhandle follows.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/ Long term outlook remains
active for the next week as a broad upper trough remains in place
over a majority of the state. Upper level low pressure will also
be a semi permanent feature in the gulf, leading to periods of
wet weather and occasionally stronger systems.

There are two primary systems of note during the end of the
weekend and start of next week. The first is a moderately strong
trough that will primarily impact the southern panhandle on
Sunday. This will bring moderate to locally heavy rains as well as
winds of 20 - 30 kt, primarily to the coastal gulf waters and
Dixon Entrance/Clarence Strait. Some outflow winds will develop
through Icy Strait as the trough rotates through the gulf as well,
with winds of 15 to 25 kt with highest expected at Cross Sound.

The second system set to impact SE Alaska has the potential to be
more impactful due to it incorporating the remnants of a former
tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar). A strong jet will help propel
this system towards Haida Gwaii Monday before it begins to
recurve northward and northwestward on Tuesday. Unlike the Sunday
storm, this one will likely bring moderate to heavy rain to a
majority of the panhandle as it transits the gulf. The storm
itself is expected to have substantial embedded moisture, while a
significant plume of moisture will be primarily aimed further
south toward the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Similar
to the Sunday system, the southern panhandle will likely see the
heaviest rainfall and highest totals for this timeframe. However,
this system also has the potential to produce high wind gusts of
45 kt or more to Dixon Entrance and southern Prince of Wales
Island as it approaches and makes its turn northward. The overall
track of this feature and how healthy the storm is will play a
major role into how the wind field sets up along the inside
passage. At minimum, widespread small craft conditions with winds
of 25+ kt can be expected to follow NE of the feature along the
outer coast Tuesday and into Wednesday, with modest increases in
winds in the inside waters as well with highest winds currently
expected near Dixon Entrance. We will be watching this for further
developments over the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Rather active aviation weather today with an incoming
front for this afternoon and this evening. Rain (reducing vis and
ceilings to MVFR) and winds (gusts up to 40 mph at the surface
over southern POW island) have been increasing all day across the
southern panhandle and outer coast. Pilot reports of turbulence
(occasional mod) and one report of low level wind shear have been
received from the southern panhandle as well today. Increasing
winds and rain for the rest of the panhandle is expected this
evening with gusty conditions and MVFR (isolated IFR) vis and
ceilings at times this evening. Possible turbulence and low level
wind shear (mainly speed sheer) will likely be continue to be
observed through this evening. Improving conditions into tomorrow
with VFR conditions and lower winds as we will be in between
systems. Conditions begin to deteriorate again on Sunday across
the south as the next front moves in.

&&

.MARINE...A frontal passage continues to bring enhanced winds to
the southern panhandle up to Icy Strait. A mainly easterly front,
east-west facing channels such as Fredrick Sound, Peril Strait,
and Icy Strait will continue to see winds as high as 20 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots. Currently, the southern panhandle is seeing
the worst of the winds, and they will be dwindling down over the
course of the evening and overnight hours. Similarly, for the rest
of the inner channels, winds will be on the downward trend through
Sunday morning to around 10 knots. The next front arriving Sunday
night look to again bring winds up to 20-25 knots in the inner
channels with up to 30 knots on the outside waters.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...EAL

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