880
FXAK67 PAJK 171436
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
636 AM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Fairly quiet weather continues, with drier
conditions for much of the area expected although the occasional
rain shower is possible from the Icy Strait Corridor southward on
Friday, especially for the southern panhandle.

As of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery depict a
marine layer in the outer coastal waters along with a stratus
deck which developed through the evening and overnight hours.
Further offshore, a weak system is moving towards the panhandle.
Though this system will stay primarily off the coast, it will
provide sufficient onshore flow to support chances of precip,
though still expect significant breaks in the clouds for many
locations, especially the northern half of the area. The system
will briefly displace the weak ridge that began to build over the
area on Thursday, but expect the ridge to begin rebuilding to some
extent on Saturday, bringing with it another period of drier
weather through Saturday before a low moves across the gulf and
enters SE AK on Sunday.

Winds near ocean entrances, Lynn Canal, and for some southern
inner channels will remain elevated through much of the day and
so increased winds for these locations. Chances of PoP were
diminished across the central panhandle, though the occasional
rain shower cannot be ruled out. THe forecast in general remains
largely on track.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday through Thursday / Incoming frontal band,
pushes ridge axis through Southeast Alaska Saturday. The front
then moves into the eastern Gulf and panhandle Sunday. Winds ahead
of the front will be near gale force and near small craft into
the inner channels on Sunday. Will be watching for the amount of
QPF, at present, it is not looking enough to threaten flooding.

A large high amplitude ridge builds over the central gulf Monday
into Tuesday this will assist in moving the late weekend system
and push the rain into Canada. Expect to see clearing conditions
through Tuesday.

Into mid next week drying continues with the ridge hanging around
in the eastern gulf and the panhandle. Mid next week is also
looking to be rather warm as southerly flow starts to build ahead
of a new front in the gulf. Highs may reach into the 60s over a
wide area. Wednesday has the possibility of being the warmest day
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/...Primarily VFR category CIG and
VIS flight conditions through the 24-hour TAF period with some
MVFR conditions this morning along the Outer Coast and the Icy
Strait corridor due to a marine layer that has built-in. SFC winds
and LLWS values remain benign through the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...JLC

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