440
FXUS61 KAKQ 191840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
240 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting
through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky
return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more
summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.

- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the
  60s along the coast.

High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this
morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC
OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic
southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave
axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to
the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern
Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region,
especially across western and northern portions of the area (away
from the coast). Latest satellite imagery is already showing
some breaks in the clouds, especially over the piedmont and the
Eastern Shore. Clouds will continue to break up through the day,
especially inland, allowing temps to warm into the low 70s.
Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low- level flow
will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to yesterday
(Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just broken-
overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the
immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low- level convergence and a final piece of
upper energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the
Piedmont. Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very
isolated, which is supported by the high res models that
reflect little to no activity.

Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be
in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly
dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains
  cooler at the coast.

Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the
pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually
subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay
mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper
60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the
day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight
lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in
typically cooler inland spots.

Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore
flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s
and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become
mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.

- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the
  week.

A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a
ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to
the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for
Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s
are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds
becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of
the area.

Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely
cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of
associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of
guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now
favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly
stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the
afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-
50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit
cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps
around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be
another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a
disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent
on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is
currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with
another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the
extended period generally remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread MVFR across the area this afternoon as BKN-OVC skies
persist. Drier air will filter into the area as an upper level
trough pivots offshore, allowing clouds to scatter out over much
of the area this evening. Clouds are expected to build back into
the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the
clouds come the return of flight restrictions with MVFR at the
coast and potential IFR at RIC. Guidance also suggests formation
of fog over the piedmont overnight, which may impact RIC. NE
winds will persist at the coast through the period. Further
inland, winds become light and varied overnight.

Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast
through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR
expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and
  lower bay due to seas.

- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and
  continuing for much of the week.

A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward
through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South
Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across
all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of
Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the
low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will
gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect
NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps
increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal
waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4
to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the
northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet
(although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the
possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all
small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted
that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be
on Monday.

Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday  evening as the high shifts
offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the
remainder of the forecast period.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the
southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4-
 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern
beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3-
4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with
Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before
falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may
cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites
should stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....

Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies
already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to
minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most
likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a
coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD
eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern
Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching
action stage.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AM/SW
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...