913
FXUS61 KAKQ 301852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
252 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides offshore early this morning. An upper
trough will track across the region late this afternoon and
evening, bringing an increase in clouds and a few passing showers
over south central VA and northeast NC. Otherwise, pleasant and
less humid conditions are expected today through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant and comfortable today with temperatures at or just
  below normal. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80, with lows
  in the 50s. A few readings in the upper 40s are possible well
  inland.

- A few showers will be possible late this afternoon and this
  evening over south central and southeastern VA into NE NC.
  Rainfall amounts will be quite light and areal coverage of
  showers are expected to be quite low.

Latest analysis reveals sprawling 1026+ mb sfc high pressure
centered over the western Great Lakes/upper midwest early this
morning. To our northeast, ~1010mb surface low pressure is
centered along the coast of Southern New England. The upper
pattern has morphed into an omega block, with an upper ridge
well up into the Canadian Prairies and western Ontario, flanked
by a pair of troughs, the closer of which is digging from the
eastern Great Lakes into the northern mid- Atlantic.

Not too much change in forecast thinking for the near and short
term. Surface high pressure remains centered over the Great
Lakes, as the sfc low lifts NE along the coast of eastern New
England. One last shortwave embedded in the parent upper trough
drops SE across the Mid- Atlantic this afternoon and evening.
Therefore expect an increase in flat cu/stratocu by afternoon
after a mainly sunny start. Also, as the cold cool pushes across
the region and steepens low-level lapse rates, CAMs have
continued to key into some isolated showers across the region
late this afternoon and this evening. Thinking is any showers
would be quite light and likely centered along and SSE of US-60
in central/south central VA, reaching NE NC by this evening. Any
showers should be brief with QPF on the order of a few
hundredths at best. On the good side, NW flow aloft brings a
cooler, drier day. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid
to upper 70s.

The surface high builds in from the NW tonight. Becoming mostly
clear from NW to SE overnight w/lows ranging from the upper 40s
NW to the upper 50s/around 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Continued pleasant with temperatures still cooler than normal
  for Friday. Chilly Friday night with lows in the 40s inland
  to low 50s at the coast.

- Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday into
Saturday as the upper trough shifts offshore and the upper
ridge builds across the Ohio Valley. Very pleasant and sunny
Friday with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints dropping into the
40s. Comfortably cool Friday night/early Saturday morning with
lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s W to the lower to mid 50s
along the coast. While dewpoints remain comfortable, the airmass
begins to modify Saturday as the upper ridge crests over the
east coast. Building W-SW flow aloft brings the start of a
moderating temperature trend, with highs warming into the upper
70s to lower 80s under a mainly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming trend continues from Sunday through next
  week.

- Low rain chances return with typical late day and evening
  showers and thunderstorms possible both Sunday and Monday.

Surface high pressure remains over the area Saturday night,
before shifting offshore Sunday. Low temperatures will mainly
be in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday morning, followed by
highs in the lower to mid 80s Sunday. The upper ridge builds
across the region, but does break down slightly later Sunday
afternoon and evening with a low probability of a few
showers/tstms drifting into western portions of the area as a
warm front drifts up from the south.

The upper ridge becomes anchored out in the western Atlantic for
much of the first half of next week, as quasi-zonal flow
prevails from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. This will lead
to a continues steady warming trend as very warm, moist gulf
air is advected back north into the region. Highs climb up into
the lower to mid 80s early in the week Monday, and reach back up
above normal into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F by Wednesday
and Thursday. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Chances of
afternoon/evening showers and storms will mainly be at climo
levels (20-30% or less).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes as of 18z, with
an upper trough and secondary cold front dropping SE across
PA/WV. VFR with FEW-SCT CU along the coast and SCT-BKN CU inland
with bases of 5-7kft. The wind is mainly N to NW 10-15kt with
occasional gusts up to 20kt. The upper trough and cold front
will approach from the NW late this aftn and evening, and push
through the area overnight. This is expected to bring a period
of BKN cigs ~6kft, especially from central/SE VA into NE NC
(less cloud cover at SBY) along with very isolated showers. ORF
and PHF have the best chc (albeit limited) of showers this
evening through around 06z so VCSH has been added to those sites.
Any showers should have little impact on cig/vsby. Otherwise,
clouds clear from NW-SE overnight into early Friday morning. The
wind later this aftn into tonight will be light and generally
out of the NW to N. Sunny and VFR Friday with a northerly wind
of 10-15kt with occasional gusts approaching 20kt through
midday, and then diminishing during the aftn as high pressure
builds in from the NW.

High pressure spreads across the region Friday night through
Saturday, before sliding offshore Sunday through Tuesday.
Primarily dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
Thursday night through Tuesday. The only exception is a slight
chc of showers/tstms Sunday as a weakening system tracks N of
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.

- Another brief N surge of 15 to 20 knots is possible Friday
  morning as high pressure builds in from the NW.

Sfc high pressure is centered across the western Great Lakes
this aftn, with sfc low pressure off the southern New England
coast. N to NW winds are averaging 10-15 kt this aftn over the
local waters, with seas 2-3 ft (except locally 3-4 ft off NC).
Waves are 1-2 ft in the Bay. Winds will tend to drop off a bit
this evening.

As high pressure starts to builds in from the NW overnight into
Fri, N winds again increase to ~15 kt+ with gusts to 20 kt+
with the highest winds expected from about 4 am through ~10 am.
Local wind probs have a 20-40% chc for 18 kt sustained winds in
the Bay (which is less than what occurred earlier today when
the probs were >60%). Expect that there will be a short duration
of gusts to 20-25 kt but confidence in this lasting long enough
to warrant headlines is low. Decided to not issue any SCA
headlines for now and will allow next shift to assess (at the
very least we will probably need to issue an MWS for a short
duration surge Friday morning). Either way, this should be a
low- end SCA event if it does occur, with sub- SCA conditions
returning Fri aftn and beyond. Winds will generally be light
Saturday as the sfc high settles over the region, with a
southerly flow developing Sat night/Sunday as the sfc high
shifts off the coast. Sub-SCA conditions continue through the
middle of next week, with seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft or less.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

NNE winds have led to 3-4 ft waves along NC Beaches and with
low tide expected early this evening have raised Moderate rip
risk for NC OBX Currituck through 8 pm this evening (low rip
riskelsewhere). It will be close again Friday (southern VA/NE
NC beaches) as another northerly surge could bring waves ~3ft
nearshore, but for now stayed with Low rips all zones Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ