910
FXUS61 KAKQ 291327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
927 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and drier conditions are expected across the region
through late week, though some scattered afternoon showers or
thunderstorms will be possible over far northern portions of our
area into tonight. Pleasant and less humid conditions are
expected for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the north once
  again on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Morning GOES water vapor channels continue to show a relatively
compact but potent shortwave trough digging southeast from the
upper midwest into the western Ohio Valley. At the surface, a
~1000mb surface low pressure was analyzed over SE QC pushing
toward Atlantic Canada, with the associated cold front now
offshore of the eastern seaboard from New England to the coastal
Carolinas. To the west, a secondary or reinforcing cold front
is pushing from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley. It is
this system that will bring another round of showers and storms
to the region later today. Temperatures are warming through the
lower to mid 70s this morning after morning lows that ranged
from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The potent, compact upper shortwave and associated secondary
cold front to the west are still on track to dive SE across the
Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians this morning into the
afternoon, reaching the local area by early to mid- afternoon
into this evening. Expect this system will trigger another round
of isolated to scattered showers. Given the better forcing/shear
remaining just to our north, expect greatest coverage of
convection to be over the northern and northeastern tier of the
local area (mainly NE of the I-64 corridor). Cooler
temperatures aloft will allow for the development of some modest
instability (< 300-400 J/kg of MLCAPE) by the afternoon, while
deep-layer bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates increase
slightly. While the relatively weak shear will serve to limit
areal coverage to a degree, a multicell storm mode is favored,
with isolated to widely scattered showers expected. One or two
strong to severe storms remain possible, with gusty winds and
marginally severe hail the main threats. PoPs remain in the
30-50% range north of I-64, with slight rain chances south of
RIC metro to Hampton Roads/NE NC (kept the I-85 corridor into
interior NE NC dry for today, with these areas farther removed
from best forcing).

The cold front pushes offshore late tonight with high pressure
building across the region for Thursday and Friday. This will
bring dry and pleasant conditions for the latter portion of the
week. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s NW, to mid 80s SE
sections. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s inland, mid 50s to
around 60 coastal sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant and comfortable Thursday and Friday with temperatures
  at or just below normal. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80,
  with lows in the 50s. A few readings in the 40s are possible
  well inland.

- Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday.

The secondary cold front slides offshore Thursday morning. Cool,
dry Canadian high pressure builds across the region from
Thursday through early Saturday. Meanwhile, another shortwave
digs the upper trough south across the region Thursday into
Friday, with resultant NW flow aloft, keeping temperatures
cooler than normal both days. The upper trough pushes off the
mid- Atlantic coast Friday afternoon. Upper ridging on its heels
then builds across the eastern seaboard for the weekend, also
initiating a moderating temperature trend Saturday that will
continue into early next week.

Highs Thursday and Friday are generally in the 70s, with dewpoints
only in the upper 40s to lower 50s under a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Lows Friday morning potentially drop into the upper
40s for the Piedmont, with 50s for most of the area, and around
60F far SE. Highs Saturday in the upper 70s to around 80, with
lows early Sunday in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures return Sunday into early next
  week.

- Low rain chances return with typical late day and evening
  showers and storms possible both Sunday and Monday.

The upper ridge builds across the east coast late in the
weekend into early next week, as surface high pressure settles
offshore. This will bring mainly dry conditions and a continuing
trend of moderating temperatures. A dampening trough tries to
push over the top of the ridge Sunday into early next week, but
PoPs are no higher than climo (15-20%) at this time. Highs
trend back into the mid 80s by SUnday, with mid to upper 80s
into early next week. Lows mainly in the 50s to begin the
medium range period, moderating back into the 60s into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 12z/29 TAF
period. Winds generally calm to very light/variable early this
morning, with winds to slowly increase to 7-10 kt out of the
W-SW inland, becoming SSE in afternoon seabreeze from ORF to
ECG. Another, more widespread round of showers is expected later
today, as an upper level disturbance slides by just north of
the region. Generally, isolated to widely scattered
showers/tstms are expected by mid to late aftn into early
evening. Rain chances chances 30-40% N (including KSBY), quickly
tapering to 15-20% from RIC-PHF to ORF. Have added vicinity
shower wording at KRIC but with relatively low areal coverage
and with showers likely coming after 21-22z into this evening
farther east, have held out mention for now for remaining
terminals. Showers clear out after midnight, with decreasing
clouds into Thu morning.

Outlook: Cool high pressure builds across the region for the
latter half of the week into the upcoming weekend. Dry and VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through this period, though
some showers and T-storms will be possible by Sunday afternoon
and evening as the modifying high begins to slide offshore into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses the local waters tonight with a brief NW/N 15-
20 kt surge expected late tonight into Thursday.

- Another brief N surge of 15-20 kt is possible Thursday night into
Friday as high pressure builds in.

Low pressure was located in E Quebec early this morning with a cold
front extending SW through the OH Valley. Meanwhile, a nearly
stationary front was located along the coast. The stationary front
moves E early this morning with winds becoming NW/N 10-15 kt. Winds
diminish to 5-10 kt later this morning, becoming onshore this
afternoon, increasing briefly to 10-15 kt this evening. A shortwave
trough moves into the area this afternoon into this evening while
the aforementioned cold front moves E towards the local waters.
As such, some scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon and evening (greatest chance across the N waters).
Given strong low level lapse rates, gusty winds will be possible
with SMWs potentially needed for stronger convection. The cold
front crosses tonight with winds becoming NW/N 15-17 kt with
gusts to 20 kt late tonight into Thu afternoon. NBM probs show a
30-35% chance for 18 kt sustained winds across the upper bay
with lower probs (<20%) across the middle and lower bay.
However, there is a ~95% prob for 18 kt gusts across the upper
bay and 50-70% probs across the middle and lower bay. As such,
will hold off on any possible SCAs for now (due to low
confidence in sustained winds of 18+ kt) and continue to monitor
the model trends. If models trend higher today, SCAs may be
warranted for tonight into Thu.

N winds diminish to 10-15 kt Thu afternoon into Thu night. As high
pressure builds in late Thu into Fri, N winds briefly increase to 14-
17 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Once again, cannot rule out low-end SCA
conditions early Fri with this surge, but confidence is low (NBM has
generally 10-30% chance for 18 kt sustained winds and 50-60% chance
for 18 kt gusts Fri). Winds remain generally light and variable this
weekend into early next week as high pressure gradually moves E
across the local waters and offshore.

Waves of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week apart
from a brief increase in waves to 2-3 ft Thu and Fri. The rip
current risk remains low today and Thu given mainly 2 ft nearshore
breaking waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RMM