507
FXUS61 KAKQ 290547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
147 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and drier conditions are expected across the region
through late week, though some isolated late day showers or
thunderstorms will be possible over far northern portions of our
area this afternoon and Wednesday. Pleasant and less humid
conditions are expected for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 850 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- An isolated shower or storm is possible over far northern
  counties and western piedmont counties over the next couple of
  hours. Otherwise, dry and pleasant tonight.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper trough extending from
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this
evening. Surface low pressure is located over southern QB with
the associated cold front well away from the Delmarva coast, but
just off the Carolina coast to the S. Showers/storms associated
with the front have stayed to the S of the Albemarle Sound this
evening. A shortwave trough lifting across the northern Mid-
Atlantic is triggering isolated showers and potentially a few
tstms across northern VA and MD. A few of these have clipped the
northern counties and the western piedmont this evening. A
couple of stronger showers have produced wind gusts ~30-40mph
according to sfc obs. Precip is expected to end within the next
couple of hours. Otherwise, dry and pleasant tonight with low
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the north once
  again on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Pleasant and comfortable Thursday and Friday.

A vigorous upper trough and associated secondary cold front
will dive SE and reach the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This will trigger isolated to scattered showers, with
the greatest coverage across the northern and northeastern tier
of the area (mainly NE of the I-64 corridor). Cooler
temperatures aloft will allow for the development of some modest
instability (< 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) by the afternoon as bulk
shear and mid-level lapse rates increase slightly. So while
widespread severe is not anticipated, a few tstms (and
potentially even a stronger tstm or two) are certainly possible.
Will keep PoPs in the 30-40% range north of I-64, with little
or no rain chances south of RIC metro to Hampton Roads/NE NC.
The cold front pushes offshore Wednesday night with high
pressure building across the region for Thursday and Friday.
This will bring dry and pleasant conditions for the latter
portion of the week.

Highs Wednesday are mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Cooler Wednesday night with lows in the 50s for most of the
area, and near 60F/lower 60s for the far SE. Highs Thursday and
Friday are generally in the 70s and dewpoints only in the upper
40s to lower 50s under a mostly sunny sky. Lows Friday morning
potentially drop into the upper 40s for the Piedmont, with 50s
for most of the area, and around 60F far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Gradually warming temperatures return Sunday into early next
  week.

An upper ridge builds across the East Coast over the weekend
into early next as surface high pressure settles offshore. This
will bring mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures. A
dampening trough tries to push across the top of the ridge
Sunday into early next week, but PoPs are no higher than climo
at this time. Highs trend back into the 80s this weekend into
early next week, with lows in the 50s to begin the medium range
period and then 60s later in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 06z/29 TAF
period. Winds generally calm to very light/variable through
12-13z, when winds slowly increase to 7-10 kt out of the W-SW
inland, becoming SSE in afternoon seabreeze from ORF to ECG.
Another, more widespread round of showers is expected later
today, as an upper trough slides just north of the region.
Generally, isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms are
expected by mid to late aftn into early evening. Rain chances
chances 30-40% N (including KSBY), quickly tapering to 15-20%
from RIC-PHF to ORF.

Outlook: Cool high pressure builds across the region for the
latter half of the week into the upcoming weekend. Dry and VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through this period, though
some showers and T-storms will be possible by Sunday afternoon
and evening as the modifying high begins to slide offshore into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

Light and variable winds across the waters this afternoon with a
stalled front near the area. Seas are generally 2-3 ft and waves in
the bay are 1 ft or less. The front drops S tonight, briefly
shifting winds to the S and then to the N early Wednesday. Winds
again become variable Wednesday afternoon before a secondary cold
front drops through the waters late Thursday night into Wednesday
morning. This will likely produce a brief surge of northerly winds
to around 15 kt in the Chesapeake Bay. There is a low-medium chance
(around 15-20% per local wind probs) that small craft advisories
will be needed. Winds relax some, but remain northerly, for Thursday
afternoon/evening. There will likely be another surge of cooler air
Friday morning and winds again increase to around 15 kt. Similar to
the Wed night/Thu morning event, this is looking mainly sub-SCA (but
cannot completely rule them out). Waves in the bay increase to 2-3
ft during these surges, but average 1-2 ft otherwise. Seas remain 2-
3 ft through the period. Mainly benign conditions into the weekend
with high pressure near the area.

The rip current risk remains low tomorrow (Wednesday) and
Thursday given mainly 2 ft nearshore breaking waves and light
winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/AM/MAM
MARINE...SW