979
FXUS61 KAKQ 301328
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
928 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slides offshore early this morning. An upper
trough will track across the region late this afternoon and
evening, bringing an increase in clouds and a few passing showers
over south central VA and northeast NC. Otherwise, pleasant and
less humid conditions are expected today through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant and comfortable today with temperatures at or just
  below normal. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80, with lows
  in the 50s. A few readings in the upper 40s are possible well
  inland.

- A few showers will be possible late this afternoon and this
  evening over south central and southeastern VA into NE NC.
  Rainfall amounts will be quite light and areal coverage of
  showers are expected to be quite low.

Latest analysis reveals sprawling 1026+ mb sfc high pressure
centered over the western Great Lakes/upper midwest early this
morning. To our northeast, ~1010mb surface low pressure is
centered along the coast of Southern New England. The upper
pattern has morphed into an omega block, with an upper ridge
well up into the Canadian Prairies and western Ontario, flanked
by a pair of troughs, the closer of which is digging from the
eastern Great Lakes into the northern mid- Atlantic.

Not too much change in forecast thinking for the near and short
term. Surface high pressure remains centered over the Great
Lakes, as the sfc low lifts NE along the coast of eastern New
England. One last shortwave embedded in the parent upper trough
drops SE across the Mid- Atlantic this afternoon and evening.
Therefore expect an increase in flat cu/stratocu by afternoon
after a mainly sunny start. Also, as the cold cool pushes across
the region and steepens low-level lapse rates, CAMs have
continued to key into some isolated showers across the region
late this afternoon and this evening. Thinking is any showers
would be quite light and likely centered along and SSE of US-60
in central/south central VA, reaching NE NC by this evening. Any
showers should be brief with QPF on the order of a few
hundredths at best. On the good side, NW flow aloft brings a
cooler, drier day. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid
to upper 70s.

The surface high builds in from the NW tonight. Becoming mostly
clear from NW to SE overnight w/lows ranging from the upper 40s
NW to the upper 50s/around 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Continued pleasant with temperatures still cooler than normal
  for Friday. Chilly Friday night with lows in the 40s inland
  to low 50s at the coast.

- Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday into
Saturday as the upper trough shifts offshore and the upper
ridge builds across the Ohio Valley. Very pleasant and sunny
Friday with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints dropping into the
40s. Comfortably cool Friday night/early Saturday morning with
lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s W to the lower to mid 50s
along the coast. While dewpoints remain comfortable, the airmass
begins to modify Saturday as the upper ridge crests over the
east coast. Building W-SW flow aloft brings the start of a
moderating temperature trend, with highs warming into the upper
70s to lower 80s under a mainly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming trend continues from Sunday through next
  week.

- Low rain chances return with typical late day and evening
  showers and thunderstorms possible both Sunday and Monday.

Surface high pressure remains over the area Saturday night,
before shifting offshore Sunday. Low temperatures will mainly
be in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday morning, followed by
highs in the lower to mid 80s Sunday. The upper ridge builds
across the region, but does break down slightly later Sunday
afternoon and evening with a low probability of a few
showers/tstms drifting into western portions of the area as a
warm front drifts up from the south.

The upper ridge becomes anchored out in the western Atlantic for
much of the first half of next week, as quasi-zonal flow
prevails from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. This will lead
to a continues steady warming trend as very warm, moist gulf
air is advected back north into the region. Highs climb up into
the lower to mid 80s early in the week Monday, and reach back up
above normal into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F by Wednesday
and Thursday. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Chances of
afternoon/evening showers and storms will mainly be at climo
levels (20-30% or less).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions across area terminals prevail through the
12z TAF period. Light winds this morning become NNW wind of
8-12kt (gusts to near 18-20kt toward the coast) with SCT-BKN
aftn CU/stratocu field developing along with some isolated
showers mainly W-SW of terminals as another upper disturbance
tracks SE across the region.

Outlook: A slight chc of showers lingers into this evening
southern VA and NE NC. Otherwise, high pressure builds across
the region Thursday night through Saturday, before sliding
offshore Sunday into Monday. Dry and VFR conditions are expected
to prevail Thursday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into this
afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay and James River.

- Another brief N surge of 15 to 20 knots is possible tonight into
Friday as high pressure builds in.

A cold front has pushed SE through the local waters early this
morning with winds generally NW 5-10 kt. The CAA surge lags behind
with winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the
Ches Bay and James River. As such, SCAs have been extended to
include the James River this morning. SCAs for the Ches Bay remain
in effect until 4 PM this afternoon (with winds potentially
diminishing earlier). Elsewhere, winds increase to 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt. Cannot rule out a few gusts up to 25 kt across the S
coastal waters this morning, however, duration (1-2 hours) and
confidence are too low to extend SCAs to the coastal waters. Winds
become N late this morning into this afternoon, diminishing to 10-15
kt everywhere late. As high pressure builds in tonight into Fri, N
winds briefly increase to 14-17 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Low-end SCA
conditions are possible late tonight into Fri afternoon with this
surge, but confidence is low (NBM has 15-30% chance for 18 kt
sustained winds and 80-90% chance for 18 kt gusts Fri). Winds remain
generally light this weekend into early next week as high pressure
gradually moves E across the local waters and offshore.

Waves of 1-2 ft build to 2-3 ft later this morning before subsiding
to 1-2 ft late. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the weekend. The rip
current risk remains low through Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ637-
     638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RMM