901
FXUS61 KAKQ 231931
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest this evening into
tonight. The boundary weakens as it pushes south into the local
area on Friday. The front lifts back north Saturday with daily
chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
continuing through the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

A weakening cold front will approach the area from the NW this
evening into tonight. In advance of the front, expect showers
and thunderstorms to push into the area from the west by this
evening (generally after 5pm) and work their way eastward
through 11 pm or so. The threat of svr weather will be
low/isolated at best (SPC marginal risk still in place) with
CAMs suggesting that the storms over the Roanoke Valley at the
current time will be the primary threat as they straddle the
VA/NC border. Outside of isold/wdly scattered storms through the
evening hours, expect at partly to mostly cloudy sky overnight
with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

The aforementioned weak front will stall out across the local
area on Friday. 12z NAM and HRRR are showing the potential for
scattered showers/storms during the morning before clearing and
then additional isold showers/storms developing in the
afternoon. Remainder of the guidance favors the
afternoon/evening for any showers/storms. Forecast still favors
highest PoPs on Friday after 18z (15-20% NE to 30-40% S).
Remaining summer-like and rather warm Friday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s inland, and upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast
due to a developing sea-breeze in weak flow. Mild Friday night
with lows in the 60s. 23/12z guidance has some broad
consistency in showing shortwave energy arriving Saturday in
westerly mid/upper level flow, with the boundary lifting back to
the N, but confidence in the details remains low. Given this,
PoPs for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are 30-50%
across the entire area. Highs Saturday will once again be in the
mid 80s, with upper 70s to lower 80s toward the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm and humid Sunday into Memorial Day with the
  potential for showers and thunderstorms Memorial Day.

Continued warm and humid Saturday night with any showers/tstms
diminishing in coverage as shortwave ridging arrives in the
westerly flow aloft. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Highs
Sunday will once again be in the mid 80s inland with upper 70s
to lower 80s toward the coast. Less coverage of showers/tstms
are expected Sunday afternoon/evening as broad ridging prevails,
with PoPs less than 10% NE to ~30% SW. 23/12z EPS/GEFS depict
an anomalous trough digging from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast Monday through Wednesday with a cold front pushing
through the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence on timing remains on the
low-side, but given the strength of the trough more coverage of
showers/tstms are possible in the Memorial Day/Monday night
timeframe. Highs Memorial Day will once again be rather warm in
the mid 80s to around 90F (slightly lower at the coast), with
highs trending down into the upper 70s to lower 80s toward the
middle of next week with drier air also arriving into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Brief flight restrictions (mainly vsby) will be possible in
any showers/tstms this evening should they reach the SE VA
terminals. Best chance will be between (22z-03z). Winds will
remain light, except gusty and erratic with storms.

A front stalls in the vicinity of the region Friday-Monday,
bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/tstms. Chances for showers/tstms are mainly 15-20% NE to
30-40% SW Friday, 30-40% across the area Saturday, and 15% or
less NE to 20-30% SW Sunday. There is the potential for more
coverage of showers/tstms Monday as an upper trough approaches
from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through Sunday.

- Chances for showers and storms (especailly in the afternoons and
evenings) through the Holiday weekend.

A very quiet stretch of marine weather conditions is expected
through Sunday. Expect winds of 5-15kt through Sunday with seas 2-3
ft over the ocean/waves 1-2 ft in the bay. Afternoons will likely be
dominated by sea breezes each day so winds should become onshore
during those times, otherwise expect south to southeast winds.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have continued
with winds of 10 to 20 kt on Monday, still below small craft
advisory criteria. Winds turn NW at 10 to 15 kt behind the front on
Tuesday into midweek.

Marine interests will need to keep an eye out for thunderstorms each
day through Memorial Day, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...MRD