547
FXUS61 KALY 210205
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain mild tonight with a mostly clear sky and
some patchy late-night fog.  Tuesday will be another warm day, with
a few afternoon thunderstorms across northern areas.  Hot weather is
expected again on Wednesday, with the threat for some showers or
thunderstorms for Wednesday night into Thursday, before more
seasonable temperatures return to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mostly clear through the night with just some high clouds
and convective debris from storms in far western NY beginning
to spread into the region between midnight and daybreak. Light
winds and radiational cooling will help temperatures fall to
around current forecast, along with some patchy fog. Just minor
adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Surface high pressure (around 1018 mb) is located off the
eastern seaboard. Upper level ridge axis, extending from the mid
Atlantic north-northeast towards New England, is centered close
to the area, but this will be shifting slightly east-southeast
for tonight.

Visible satellite imagery shows some passing cirrus, along with
diurnal cumulus (mainly for the high terrain). Skies will remain
fairly clear into tonight, as the diurnal cumulus dissipates,
and just the passing cirrus clouds remain. A light south to
southeast flow at low levels will continue to keep low levels
fairly moist.

After the warm temps today, it will cool this evening, but the
relatively high dewpoints will keep temps from getting too
chilly tonight. Most spots will see lows in the 50s to near 60.
Some patchy fog may develop in valley areas (especially spots
sheltered within the terrain), but fog should be fairly brief
and limited to just the late night hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the ridge axis shifting eastward, a weak disturbance will
be passing by to the north on Tuesday. The best dynamics will be
well north of the area across southern Canada. Northern areas
could see a stray shower or t-storm as early as the morning
hours, although the better chance is likely in the afternoon or
early evening hours. Even then, coverage will be fairly
isolated, as the best forcing will be north of the area. While
the warm and humid air mass in place will allow for plenty of
instability, shear looks limited, with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 20 kts and mid level lapse rates look fairly poor as
well. Any thunderstorm in our area should be fairly brief and
short- lived, although some gusty winds can`t be ruled out when
storms collapse thanks to the strong DCAPE and an inverted v
setup in the lower portion of the sounding profile. With plenty
of warm temps in place, it will another very warm day, with many
areas seeing highs well into the 80s.

After the disturbance departs, quiet weather will return for
Tuesday night, but it looks muggy and mild, with many spots
seeing lows in the 60s and skies becoming mostly clear once
again.

Ridging will try to reestablish itself briefly on Wednesday.
Temps aloft look very warm for late May (850 hpa temps around
+15 to +18 C) and high should once again be well into the 80s,
with even some lows 90s possible in the Capital Region. Heat
Index values look to fall short of Advisory criteria, but it
will be close and anyone being outdoors should take caution, as
this will be the first shot of real heat for this season. After
a mostly sunny start to the day, some clouds will begin to
increase for late in the day, as the next disturbance begins to
approach from the Great Lakes.

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible for Wed evening into
Wed night, as a pre-frontal surface trough heads towards the
area. The timing isn`t favorable for strong storms and shear
still looks fairly low, so just scattered showers and non-
severe thunderstorms are anticipated. Lows will be in the 60s
and it will continue to feel rather humid on Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Frontal boundary will be moving through the region on Thursday.
There still are some questions regarding the exact timing of the
frontal boundary. 0-6 km bulk shear may increase somewhat,
although the best upper level forcing will still be fairly well
displaced from the surface boundary. There is the potential for
some stronger storms on Thursday if the boundary comes through
during the afternoon and some better heating can occur ahead of
the front allowing for more instability. Will continue to
mention a high chance for showers and t-storms on Thursday, with
daytime temps still in the 80s in many areas.

Behind the front, more seasonable and less humid air will return
for Friday. Daytime temps will only be in the 70s, with more
reasonable dewpoints and no expected precip. It should continue
to remain fairly quiet into Saturday as well, with comfortable
temps and humidity levels and little chance for any precip.

The forecast for Sunday into Labor Day is a little more
uncertain, but mostly due to being farther out in the forecast
period and there is uncertainty regarding exact timing of any
approaching disturbances. There could be some approaching upper
level disturbances from the west, allowing for some scattered
shower and t-storm activity, but the forecast doesn`t look a
wash out at all and most of the time it will be dry. Temps look
seasonable in the 70s with typical levels of humidity for late
May.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure still in control of the weather, so just some thin
high clouds tonight, especially late, toward daybreak.
Radiational cooling and light wind will support some patchy fog
after about 08Z and indicating some fog at all TAF sites with
the lowest visibilities at KGFL and KPSF. Any fog will burn off
by about 12Z.

More high clouds and a few cumulus during the day Tuesday. Some
scattered thunderstorms may approach KGFL associated with a weak
cold front late in the afternoon, and including a PROB30 for
MVFR conditions in TSRA between 21-24Z there.

WInds will be south to southwest at less than 10 Kt this
evening, diminishing to light and variable through the night.
South to southwest winds at less than 10 Kt Tuesday morning and
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...NAS
CLIMATE...Speciale