842
FXUS61 KALY 190311
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1111 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies tonight will support patchy fog except in
western New England and the mid-Hudson Valley where marine
clouds will push inland. A stretch of very warm temperatures
ensues Monday through Wednesday before a cold front arriving
later in the week will lead to chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 11pm, GOES16 IR shows mid-level clouds diminishing over
the Capital District into the Mohawk Valley, southern/western
Adirondacks and northern/eastern Catskills. Temperatures here
have stayed elevated this evening thanks to the clouds in the
mid to upper 60s. Clear skies have continued over the Upper
Hudson Valley into the Taconics and parts of southern VT and
Berkshire County leading to cooler temperatures in the 50s. Given
the weak flow and dew points also in the 50s, we will continue
to monitor fog formation after Midnight. As we approach the
pre-dawn hours, still expecting a marine stratus clouds layer to
push inland into western New England and parts of the mid-
Hudson Valley. Some light showers may even reach the Connecticut
River Valley per some high res guidance. Forecast soundings
show moisture remaining trapped underneath the subsidence
inversion so marine stratus likely into Sunday morning.

Previous discussion...A weak upper-level system offshore to the
southeast has aided in maintaining easterly flow and a
relatively cool airmass with abundant clouds upstream over much
of New England. However, as upper ridging and high pressure
begin to build in from the west, a clearing trend is expected
through this evening, particularly from the Capital District to
the north and west. Temperatures along and west of the Hudson
will be near seasonal norms this afternoon, reaching highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s, while conditions will be slightly
cooler, in the upper 50s to mid 60s, in the Taconics and western
New England.

High pressure continues to increase tonight, with patchy fog
possible where skies are clearest, most likely in the Upper
Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, and within sheltered locales in the
southern Adirondacks. Light rain showers or drizzle may persist
in the Connecticut River Valley thanks to moist, onshore flow.
Temperatures fall to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure continue to build
into the beginning of the workweek, yielding dry weather,
clearing skies, and a warming trend through the period.
Temperatures will rise well above normal, reaching highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s beneath partly cloudy skies on Sunday,
and mid 70s to mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies on Monday.
Overnight lows similarly trend upward despite favorable
radiative cooling conditions, from the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Sunday night to widespread 50s across the region on Monday night
as surface dewpoints trend upward with developing southerly to
southwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with summer like
temperatures. Strong upper impulse tracks across southern Canada and
the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday and there is
considerable spread in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the track
and timing of the upper impulse and associated cold front.

Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could reach the
southern Adirondacks later Tuesday afternoon. Then, some scattered
thunderstorms are possible along a pre frontal low level trough in
our region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Highs Tuesday well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Highs
Wednesday in the 80s with near 90 Hudson Valley and lower 80s higher
terrain. Heat index values will be near actual temperatures since no
extreme humidity is expected ahead of the cold front.

The low level forcing ahead of the cold front is in question,
depending on how deep the cold advection will be behind the cold
front. Low level jet energy will be relatively strong but mainly
westerly and deep shear will be enough for some potential strong
thunderstorms. Instability ahead of the cold front should be
considerable but if the timing of the cold front is Wednesday night
to Thursday morning, then instability will be minimized. Still too
early to tell but again, strong thunderstorms possible but to early
to determine the potential for and/or magnitude of severe weather.

Cooler and drier weather Friday. Highs Thursday, timing the front
with a bit of an earlier frontal passage, in the upper 70s to lower
80s with around 70 southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday in the mid 70s
to near 80 with mid 60s to lower 70s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through at least 06 UTC at all terminals.
However, thanks to clearing at GFL for much of the night, patchy
fog is likely tonight, especially by the pre-dawn hours. We
therefore included a TEMPO group for MVFR visibility by 08 - 12
UTC. MVFR conditions are also possible for PSF and POU by or
shortly after 09 UTC as a marine stratus cloud layer pushes
inland resulting in ceilings dropping to around 2 - 2.5kft. ALB
should be far inland enough to avoid MVFR ceilings. Any fog that
develops at GFL should burn off by 12 UTC thanks to the strong
May sun angle.

MVFR cigs at PSF and POU likely linger through at least 18 UTC
as moisture remains trapped underneath the subsidence inversion.
However, cig improvements should occur by 18 - 21 UTC with PSF
likely improving last.

Light and variable winds tonight shift out of the east - northeast
by 15 - 18 UTC and become sustained around 4-7kts at terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Picard/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Speciale
CLIMATE...