448
FXUS61 KALY 240150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
950 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring clearing skies and cooler temperatures
tonight, with sunny, dry and pleasant weather on Friday. A few
showers are possible over the weekend with more widespread
rainfall expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 945 PM EDT, cold front was still progressing
slowly south and east across the mid Hudson Valley and into
Litchfield County CT. Dewpoints were still in the lower 60s on
the south/east side of the boundary, with mainly upper 40s/lower
50s to the north/west. This boundary should continue slowly
edging southeast through midnight.

Otherwise, skies have become mostly clear outside of some patchy
clouds in close proximity to the cold front. Temps have already
dropped into the lower/mid 50s across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, with generally 60s elsewhere.

Since temps have already dropped into the lower 50s across
portions of the southern Adirondacks, have lowered forecast min
temps slightly, with mid/upper 40s expected across much of the
southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley expected around
daybreak, with mainly 50s elsewhere.

Some patchy fog may form across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley, as well as the upper Hudson Valley after midnight,
however overall areal extent should remain limited.

PREVIOUS [347 PM EDT]...Clear sky tonight as weak high pressure
controls the weather. Winds will be light but boundary layer
winds from the west and northwest will increase toward daybreak.
So, some radiational cooling as low level dew points dry
through the night. Some patchy fog is possible but with dew
points falling, temperatures may not reach dew points until
quite late, so low level saturation may be too brief for much
fog. Lows in the 50s with upper 40s to around 50 northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Modified surge of drier airmass in our region and gusty west to
northwest winds Friday, with a mostly sunny sky. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with a few mid 80s mid Hudson Valley and
lower to mid 70s higher terrain.

Weak upper energy tracks east out of the Great Lakes and OH
Valley later Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the upper
energy and warm advection, dry weather with lots of sun. Some
increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs Saturday in the mid
70s to lower 80s. Scattered showers and a possible rumble of
thunder Saturday night with the leading edge of warm advection,
then intervals of clouds and sun on Sunday and mainly dry. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks
and southern Green Mountains. Highs Sunday around 80 to mid 80s
with 70s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong upper energy from the central and northern plains tracks
through the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. As the energy
approaches and tracks through our region by Monday, strengthening
warm advection, moisture advection and low level jet energy
will support increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the day Monday. Showers and thunderstorms continue
through Tuesday as the upper energy lifts northeast into eastern
Canada and the associated cold front tracks through our region.
Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

Potential break in the showers with scattered to isolated
coverage Tuesday night, before another strong upper impulse
tracks out of the Great Lakes and OH Valley Wednesday into
Thursday with more chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Potentially less instability Wednesday and
Thursday due to cooler low level temperatures in the region, so
more showery and just isolated thunderstorms.

Highs Wednesday in the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s
southern Adirondacks. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 60s
with around 60 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z/Saturday, mainly VFR conditions are expected, with
two possible caveats. First caveat might be some patchy ground
fog developing at KPOU overnight once high clouds clear out.
Current thinking as that drier air will slowly infiltrate from
the north, limiting fog potential overall, however will watch
trends closely for possible amendments.

Other caveat is possible ground fog development at KGFL. This
is a low probability overall, so have kept mention out of
current TAF. However, there is a slight chance for brief periods
of MVFR/IFR Vsbys between roughly 06Z-09Z/Fri.

West/northwest winds 5-10 KT will become light/variable
overnight, then become west to southwest at 8-12 KT Friday
morning, then shift into the west to northwest at similar speeds
Friday afternoon, although winds may become gusty, perhaps
reaching 25 KT or slightly higher at times during Friday
afternoon.


Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL