883
FXUS61 KALY 050511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Any lingering showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Tomorrow will be another warm
day with mainly dry conditions. Then, our weather pattern will
trend cooler and wetter for Thursday through early next week
with a cutoff upper low expected to be located nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated showers in southern VT, the Berkshires and NW CT, that
will dissipate through daybreak as the atmosphere continues to
slowly stabilize. Some areas of clouds but quite a few breaks in
the clouds and with winds trending to calm, temperatures will
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tomorrow, we remain under the upper ridge, although the ridge
begins to weaken as a closed upper low tracks from south-central
Canada towards the western Great Lakes. The surface high remains
to the southeast of our area, which will lead to continued
south/southwest flow and advection of warm moist air into our
area. Therefore, tomorrow looks to be another warm and slightly
muggy day with highs similar to those from today. Heat index
values could approach 90 degrees tomorrow, but are not expected
to reach heat advisory criteria. It should be partly cloudy
tomorrow and mostly dry, aside from a few isolated afternoon
showers or a non-severe thundershower over the high terrain
areas.

Tomorrow night and Thursday...The upper trough continues to
deamplify as the upper low tracks into the western Great Lakes
region. The ridge axis slides off to our east by Thursday
afternoon with falling heights aloft. A cold front will approach
from the west Thursday afternoon/evening, and a period of
showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected ahead of this
cold front late Wednesday night and Thursday. PWATs increase to
1.5-1.75" and diffluent flow aloft will provide forcing for
ascent. There could be some locally heavy pockets of rain late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which could result in
the typical ponding of water in urban/poor drainage
areas. However, we are not expecting widespread hydro issues or
flash flooding with antecedent dry conditions, relatively fast
storm motions, and overall rainfall amounts through Thursday
generally expected to max out at 1-1.25". Wednesday night will
be warmer with lows in the 50s to 60s. Thursday will feature
highs mainly in the 70s.

THursday night and Friday...The cold front tracks through our
region Thursday night or Friday, with the upper low tracking in
the Great Lakes region. The steadiest rain will end by Thursday
evening with a trend towards drier conditions Thursday night.
However, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms redevelop
during the day Friday with diurnal heating thanks to the cold
pool aloft that will be located just to our west and some
enhanced lift from the left exit of the upper jet extending
around the base of the upper low.The deeper moisture will be off
to our east at this point, so showers do not look to be
particularly heavy and the threat for hydro concerns remains
low. Thursday night will be cooler with lows in the 50s. Highs
Friday will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys) with partly
to mostly cloudy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period from Friday night into early next week will be
characterized by cool and generally unsettled conditions...

The upper low will be located near the eastern Great Lakes to start
the forecast period, and will eventually move overhead this weekend
before potentially moving off to our east at some point early next
week. There is decent agreement from deterministic and ensemble
guidance that the upper low will be nearby this weekend, but lower
confidence in where it tracks early next week and how quickly/slowly
it departs our region.

With the upper low and cold pool aloft nearby, each day will feature
chances for showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. Most
likely timing for showers/storms will be from late morning through
early evening, with diminishing chances for showers each night with
the loss of daytime heating. This will be one of those stretches
where there will be chances for showers at any time, but it will not
be raining all the time. At this point, precipitation looks to
remain showery in nature and not overly heavy, so the threat for any
hydro issues appears to be low. With mainly cloudy skies, afternoon
showers, and a cool airmass overhead, daytime highs will be mainly
in the 60s to 70s each day with overnight lows generally in the 50s
each night. Once the upper low moves off to our east sometime in the
early to middle part of next week, we should see a trend towards
warmer and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hour TAF period, with SCT-BKN mid and/or high
level clouds passing through. There is a low probability of
patchy fog tonight if there are overlapping conditions of clear
enough skies and light enough winds for at least a few hours,
but potential is too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Will
monitor trends for the next issuance.

Winds will initially be southerly around 5 kt, becoming less
than 5 kt overnight. Winds on Wednesday will be south-southwest
around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Gant