252
FXUS61 KALY 190549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies tonight will support patchy fog except in
western New England and the mid-Hudson Valley where marine
clouds will push inland. A stretch of very warm temperatures
ensues Monday through Wednesday before a cold front arriving
later in the week will lead to chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.As 145 AM EDT...A mid and upper level ridge continues to
building from the Midwest over NY and New England this morning.
High pressure continues ridge in from the Ohio Valley. The skies
have cleared or have become mostly clear from the Capital Region
north/northwest with some lingering clouds over the western
Mohawk and Schoharie Valley. Stratus continues over the Taconics
into western New England due to a marine flow with the upper
trough near the Eastern New England Coast. Some patchy
radiational fog is possible. We expanded it some with this
update and we increased the clouds over western New England.
SOme tweaks to mid temps with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure continue to build
into the beginning of the workweek, yielding dry weather,
clearing skies, and a warming trend through the period.
Temperatures will rise well above normal, reaching highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s beneath partly cloudy skies on Sunday,
and mid 70s to mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies on Monday.
Overnight lows similarly trend upward despite favorable
radiative cooling conditions, from the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Sunday night to widespread 50s across the region on Monday night
as surface dewpoints trend upward with developing southerly to
southwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with summer like
temperatures. Strong upper impulse tracks across southern Canada and
the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday and there is
considerable spread in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the track
and timing of the upper impulse and associated cold front.

Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could reach the
southern Adirondacks later Tuesday afternoon. Then, some scattered
thunderstorms are possible along a pre frontal low level trough in
our region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Highs Tuesday well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Highs
Wednesday in the 80s with near 90 Hudson Valley and lower 80s higher
terrain. Heat index values will be near actual temperatures since no
extreme humidity is expected ahead of the cold front.

The low level forcing ahead of the cold front is in question,
depending on how deep the cold advection will be behind the cold
front. Low level jet energy will be relatively strong but mainly
westerly and deep shear will be enough for some potential strong
thunderstorms. Instability ahead of the cold front should be
considerable but if the timing of the cold front is Wednesday night
to Thursday morning, then instability will be minimized. Still too
early to tell but again, strong thunderstorms possible but to early
to determine the potential for and/or magnitude of severe weather.

Cooler and drier weather Friday. Highs Thursday, timing the front
with a bit of an earlier frontal passage, in the upper 70s to lower
80s with around 70 southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday in the mid 70s
to near 80 with mid 60s to lower 70s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions remain VFR at GFL/ALB/POU as
of 1:15 AM EDT and MVFR at PSF as low stratus has moved in there
already. Stratus should continue to expand north and westward
through the remainder of the night, with MVFR cigs expected to
develop at POU during the pre-dawn hours. Already seeing some
stratus developing near ALB, but thinking that cloud heights should
remain above 3000 ft at ALB and therefore VFR conditions prevail
into this morning. Clear skies at GFL may allow for some fog/mist
development tonight, so have continued with the tempo group from the
previous TAF issuance. If fog forms, then IFR vsbys and/or cigs are
possible. At PSF, low stratus persists well into this morning with
MVFR/fuel alternate cigs. Low stratus burns off at POU by 13-15z and
15-17z at PSF. Any fog at GFL burns off by 12z. Once fog/mist/low
stratus dissipates, VFR conditions with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds
expected through this evening. After 3z, MVFR cigs may redevelop at
PSF with more low stratus possible tonight.

Winds will generally be light at 5 kt or less through sunrise, then
increasing to 5-10 kt from the southeast at ALB/GFL and
east/northeast at POU/PSF through this evening. Winds become light
and variable by 3z at GFL/POU and remain easterly at PSF at around 5
kt and southeasterly at ALB at around 5 kt through the end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Main
CLIMATE...Speciale