Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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814 FXUS64 KAMA 261939 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 239 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. However behind the scenes, models are expecting a stationary low to slowly set up just to our west with a stationary high building over the Gulf Coast. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the Panhandles. This is where weather could become interesting as many of the CAMs are expecting this flow shift to occur early enough that we may be able convect and create weak isolated thunderstorms for Monday evening. Confidence in this potential isnt the best with the southeast Panhandles having the best chances at 15 to 20%. Regardless, expect for chances to get better in the overnight as the above mentioned set up looks to stick around and funnel more moisture up into the Panhandles. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to grown for Panhandles this week as models continue to see the week ridge hold a surface low just to our west for the midweek. This low will work in tandem with a stagnate high pressure system off the Gulf Coast creating southerly/southeasterly flow across this Panhandles. This flow will in turn push good moisture across the Panhandles in the lower levels with many models also see moisture advect in at the mid level with the 700mb theata-e. As it stands, many models are expecting PWAT values to rise near or above one inch starting Tuesday and stay there clear through Thursday. With the moisture in places over the Panhandle, many models expect the incoming short-waves to move through and take advantage of said moisture by producing thunderstorms and showers each day. Tuesday and Thursday in particular, look to be our big days with many of the models already seeing the strongest short-wave disturbance those afternoons, which will increase the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandles. Of course, there is some day to day features that may serve to inhibit or enhance the potential, such as linger thunderstorms and showers overnight or even stubborn low-level stratus decks holding for the day. Regardless, decent accumulation looks to be possible across the Panhandles with latest giving a 40% chance at bare minimum of seeing greater than half an inch or rain by Friday. Unfortunately, this set up looks to break down Thursday evening as models see the southern axis of a trough push through and break down the stagnate low. Residual moisture will hang around through the weekend, but expect much lower chances for showers and storms with temperatures beginning to warm back towards the 90s. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Northerly winds are expected to gust through the afternoon hours at all terminals with gust getting upwards of 25kt. Winds should die down by the evening hours with most terminals seeing speeds decrease to 5 to 10 kt. Otherwise, VFR conditions will look to hold at all terminals for the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 56 92 60 86 / 0 0 20 50 Beaver OK 54 92 57 85 / 0 0 20 40 Boise City OK 49 87 53 83 / 0 0 10 50 Borger TX 56 96 62 90 / 0 0 20 50 Boys Ranch TX 54 95 60 90 / 0 0 10 50 Canyon TX 54 93 60 87 / 0 0 10 50 Clarendon TX 56 91 61 85 / 0 0 10 60 Dalhart TX 50 89 55 85 / 0 0 10 50 Guymon OK 51 91 55 85 / 0 0 20 50 Hereford TX 54 94 60 89 / 0 0 10 40 Lipscomb TX 56 91 60 84 / 0 0 20 40 Pampa TX 56 91 61 84 / 0 10 20 60 Shamrock TX 57 93 61 85 / 0 0 20 60 Wellington TX 58 94 63 86 / 0 0 20 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11