Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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413 FXUS64 KAMA 252321 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Critical fire weather conditions continue across the central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Winds continue to have gusts over 40 mph at some sites and relative humidity values are in the single digits for most of the forecast area. The Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory will continue for a few more hours this evening. Thunderstorm chances have greatly decreased and will continue to do so the rest of the evening as the dry line pushes eastward into Oklahoma. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 For today, model agreement continues to see an upper-level trough move through the Panhandles and set up good southwesterly flow for the area. Look for this southwesterly flow to hold for the day and work in tandem with a lee-side surface low in creating very dry and gusty day conditions for the Panhandles. Currently, latest guidance expects relative humidity values to bottom out across the Panhandles with most of the western counties looking at values in the single digits clear into this evening Meanwhile, an upper- level jet will look to follow the weak trough into the area and bleed down to create gusty condition across the Panhandles. As it stand, southwesterly winds reaching the 25 to 30 mph mark with gust nearing 45 mph are possible. However, even stronger winds are possible in the northwestern Panhandles thanks to lee-side low. Here winds speeds could reach closer to 30 to 25 mph with gust nearing 50 mph. Given the presences of such strong winds, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the northwestern most counties until 8 pm tonight. Of course when you add these dry conditions with gusty winds, critical fire weather is to be expected. At this time, a Red Flag Warning has been issue for the western half of the Panhandles that will run until 10 pm this afternoon. As for temperatures, look for them to rebound with many locations back into 90s with a couple of our hotter locations flirting with triple digits yet again. Otherwise, the only other concern for the day will be the very low potential of thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the Panhandles before moving off into central Oklahoma. Heading into Sunday, model agreement continues to see the rest of the trough move through in the form of a weak cold frontal passage early that morning. This frontal passage will see winds shift to a more westerly and northwesterly direction with much slower speeds for the afternoon compared to today. Otherwise, expect much quieter weather for the day with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A ridge is still highly likely to be building over NM and CO on Monday as a trough sits over eastern CONUS. The combination of these features will set up a upper level broad NW flow across the panhandles. This will cause the surface winds to shift to the SE starting on Memorial Day that will allow gulf moisture to return to the panhandles. This moisture wont arrive into the panhandles for Memorial Day keeping the skies mostly sunny with fair weather conditions throughout the holiday. Tuesday on the other hand will see the gulf moisture arrive into the panhandles with this moisture feed persisting through Thursday. This moisture will fuel rain showers and thunderstorms that can impact the entire panhandles for each of these days. Moisture trends continue to be wetter so this increases confidence that any rain shower or thunderstorms will produce meaningful rainfall when it occurs. However there is to much of a good thing for if this trend continues then flooding concerns will be on the rise. Currently there is already some indications that these rain showers or thunderstorms could produce well over an inch of rainfall. So if multiple rain showers or thunderstorms hit an area or if an especially intense storm occurs then flooding may easily result. As for stronger thunderstorms there are some small scale trough that will likely pass over the ridge then across the panhandles each day Tuesday through Wednesday. This should provide enough additional instability and dynamics for a few strong to even severe thunderstorms to form. This period of dynamic weather will wane come Friday as the ridge becomes progressive and passes east across the panhandles. This will end the influx of gulf moisture to the panhandles as well as bring broadly more stable conditions. This wont end the rain showers and thunderstorms but make them more isolated with less rainfall potential. Going into next weekend a trough seems to be the more probable feature to move across the region following the ridge. Assuming that moisture is still present then rain showers and thunderstorms will still occur in the panhandles. This remain uncertain as the pattern following the ridge is still very much in flux. Temperatures through next week are likely to be somewhat stable with highs remaining in the 80s to lower 90s. SH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds of 30 to 40 kts will continue for another few hours at all sites. After sunset, winds should decrease down to 15 kts or less with occasional gusts out of the west. Winds will become northwesterly near sunrise and should be around 15 kts. Clear skies are forecast all all terminals. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 60 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 57 88 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 53 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 61 92 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 56 91 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 59 90 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 62 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 52 86 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 55 86 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 58 92 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 59 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 61 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 62 91 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 62 93 58 92 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006. OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...05