523
FXUS64 KAMA 300551
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this
evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and
storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms
already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow
moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains.
There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that
will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight.
Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage
of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has
now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast
Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east
tomorrow morning.

Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on
Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery
for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles
early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start
off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles
and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal
into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms
form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be
challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher
LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and
better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as
the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will
significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not
completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the
area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance
for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles
Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each
day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain
will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for
excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with
lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s
storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a
ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday
temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas
given the high pressure over the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, thunderstorms may impact KGUY early in this
forecast based on latest radar data and have included mention at
that site. A brief period of MVFR cigs may develop at KAMA from
around 12Z to 15Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop late Thursday afternoon into early evening,
and have included a mention at each terminal site from around 21Z
to 03Z.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  78  60  85 /  60  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  57  79  57  86 /  90  30  30  30
Boise City OK              54  78  55  86 /  40  40  30  40
Borger TX                  60  83  61  89 /  80  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              59  82  59  89 /  40  30  30  30
Canyon TX                  57  78  58  85 /  50  30  20  30
Clarendon TX               59  77  60  81 /  80  50  30  30
Dalhart TX                 53  79  54  87 /  40  30  30  30
Guymon OK                  56  79  56  86 /  70  30  30  30
Hereford TX                57  81  58  87 /  40  30  30  30
Lipscomb TX                60  78  58  84 /  90  40  30  20
Pampa TX                   59  78  60  83 /  80  40  30  30
Shamrock TX                59  79  60  82 /  80  50  30  30
Wellington TX              60  79  60  83 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...02