639
FXUS64 KAMA 230514
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Dry weather continues to hold behind the cold frontal passage
from yesterday night. Winds are expected to stay slightly breezy
for what remains of the afternoon before slowing late this
evening. As we head into the overnight, look for a more easterly
to southeasterly surface flow to settle into the eastern and
central portions of the Panhandles. With this flow set up, expect
low- level moisture to begin moving into the Panhandles with
dewpoints rising overnight in coloration. Given the presence of
the moisture at the lower-levels, potential is present for low-
level stratus decks or fog to form during the early morning hours
of tomorrow, which will also aid to inhibiting storm development
for that afternoon.

Getting more into this storm potential for tomorrow, latest model
agreement is expecting a trough to move through well north of the
Panhandles that evening. However, this passage will be enough to
strengthen the present lee-side surface low and push the dryline
back east alongside good ingredients to produce strong severe
storms. As it stands, latest CAMs are seeing decent MLCAPE values
with some areas peaking around 3500 J/kg along our eastern most
border. Shear is also present with effective bulk shear pushing 30
to 40 kt at times. However, development of storms continues to
lean more to being very conditional for the day with most models
not expecting any activity at all. One of the main factors in
halting development continues to be the presence of very dry and
stable air at the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere. This air
pocket will keep the atmosphere very well capped for the day
making it hard for storms to develop convectively that afternoon
and evening. The dryline also will not be much help either as most
models are expecting it to stay right along the eastern border
with Central Oklahoma. Still, any development that does occur will
have to be monitored given the ingredients are present for all
hazards.

Meanwhile in the westerner half of the Panhandles, elevates fire
weather remains possible as latest guidance expects 20-25 mph
sustained winds with gusts nearing the 35 to 40 mph mark. Relative
humidity values between 10-15% will also be present that
afternoon. Otherwise a weak cold front will move in from the north
Thursday night following that northerly trough. Breezy winds
behind the cold front are favored as there are some decent surface
pressure rises.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

This Memorial Day weekend will kickoff with a passage of a cold
front early on Friday. This will see the winds shift to the north
and be gusty following the passage of the cold front. Going into
the afternoon these winds will weaken then shift to a more SE
direction. While the winds are northerly it will push slightly
cooler air across the panhandles causing near normal highs of 70s
to 80s expected. Saturday will see a trough develop over the
desert SW which then pushes eastward rapidly across the the
plains. This will cause gusty SW winds across the panhandles
pushing warmer air back into the panhandles. This will see the
highs once again increase to mostly 90s across the panhandles.
This system is not expected to produce active weather as there
will be little to no moisture to work with. Once the system pushes
to the east it will set up a broad NW flow across the panhandles.
This will cause the winds to shift to a more northerly direction
for Sunday and Monday bringing a slight cooling trend that will
see highs drop back to the 80s for Memorial Day. The general lack
of moisture looks to continue so the skies should remain mostly
sunny. For next Tuesday and Wednesday the pattern becomes harder
to pin down but overall indications suggest that a trough should
influence the panhandles. This should shift the winds to a more
southerly direction being gusty during the daytime. There is
indications that these winds will finally push some moisture into
the panhandles which opens up a small chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. Highs during this time have better odds then not
to warm with the southerly winds with 80s to 90s looking most
probable.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southeast winds early on in this 06Z TAF period are expected to
temporarily bring in some low levle moisture. In doing so, KAMA
could see some low level clouds this morning between 10Z and 14Z.
After 14Z winds will shift to the southwest under a surface trough
and push the higher moisture out to the east creating a dryline
that should lay up somewhere around the TX/OK state line. This
will leave the rest the combined Panhandles in VFR conditions
behind the dryline through the rest of the TAF period. Breezy
winds will also be to the west of the dryline with speeds as high
as 20 kts gusting 30kts out of the southwest for all three
terminals after 18Z.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon
into the early evening for the western combined Panhandles,
especially the far western Texas Panhandle. The day will start
with very high relative humidity values, as high as 100%, but
those values should quickly drop through the day. Sustained winds
of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph with minimum relative
humidity values between 10% to 15% are favored. Thus, RFTI values
between 3 to 4 are present with a brief period of values reaching
as high as 6 to 7. A cold front is expected to move in from the
north Thursday night with breezy winds behind the front.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible again
Saturday afternoon into the early evening for the western combined
Panhandles. Currently forecasting surface winds between 15 to 20 mph
with minimum relative humidity values between 5% to 10%, but
sustained winds may be as high as 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 40
to 45 mph.

Scoleri

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                92  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  93  54  81  52 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              88  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  96  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              93  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  92  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               92  57  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 88  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  92  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                92  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                92  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   92  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                91  57  83  55 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              92  57  84  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...36