106
FXUS64 KAMA 212009
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
309 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Tonight will be a fairly quiet night weather wise as the main
impacts will be a cold front move through and bring temperatures
back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Winds will
be around 15 to 25 mph, so nothing to excessive by Panhandle
standards. As far as Wednesday goes for highs, it`s a little up in
the air, as we have a battle between warmer air quickly returning,
or a cold moist pocket lingering in our south and east. Overall,
the forecast has trended towards the warmer solution. That being
said we will have to keep an eye on the southeast tonight. If the
colder solution pans out, then we could get some low clouds and
maybe even some drizzle. Additionally, if the cooler/moist
solution pans out for Wednesday night, we could get enough
moisture to saturate to the top of the inversion, and there is
ample CAPE (>3000 J/kg) above the inversion, that we could get
some overnight storms in the southeast. Especially as we expect a
shortwave to move through overnight tomorrow night. Confidence is
very low so for now no mention in the forecast, but it will be the
main focus as far as impactful weather for the short term.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thursday we`re still watching close, but the moisture looks to be
too far east and it will likely just be dry and breezy for
elevated Fire Conditions. If the moisture pulls further back to
the west, then possible strong to severe storms would be in play
for the eastern Panhandles. But again, this scenario seems
unlikely at this time. Highs on Thursday look to be in the 90s.
Friday we`ll see another quick frontal system clip the area and
drop the temperatures into the upper 70s for the north and the mid
80s to the south. We`ll then transition to dry westerly flow for
the weekend, with highs in the 90s again. We`ll start to move back
to northwest flow on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Overall, Monday looks dry, but there`s a pattern change
possibly holding in the extended, where the northwest flow could
prevail and multiple days of thunderstorms will be possible
starting Tuesday.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with winds mainly out the southwest for KAMA and KDHT in the
15-20kt range, and winds out of the east to northeast for KGUY.
KGUY winds expected to be on the lighter side in the 5-15kt range.
After about 06z tonight all winds will be out of the north
northeast around 15 to 20kts, and those winds will gradually shift
easterly and become lighter through the afternoon. Confidence is
not high, but well keep an eye out for possible low clouds and
maybe some drizzle to creep into Amarillo for some brief MVFR
cigs around the 12z time period.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  78  56  92 /   0   0  10   0
Beaver OK                  53  79  53  93 /  10   0  10  10
Boise City OK              46  77  51  88 /  10  10  10   0
Borger TX                  55  82  59  96 /  10   0  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              52  82  56  95 /   0   0  10   0
Canyon TX                  52  79  56  93 /   0   0  10   0
Clarendon TX               55  77  57  92 /  10   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 47  78  50  89 /   0   0  10   0
Guymon OK                  49  78  53  92 /  10   0  10   0
Hereford TX                52  81  56  93 /   0   0  10   0
Lipscomb TX                55  79  55  92 /  10   0  10  10
Pampa TX                   53  78  56  92 /  10   0  10   0
Shamrock TX                56  78  57  92 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              58  79  59  93 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89