220
FXUS64 KAMA 041922
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
222 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A couple stray storms can`t be ruled out this afternoon as a front
reaching the KS-OK border as of 18z continues pushing south. Ahead
of the boundary is a drying air mass characterized by falling dew
pts and rising temps, while higher moisture content and cooler
temps exist behind it. This front may provide enough forcing and
theta-e advection with it to overcome capping and dry air, to
perhaps pop off some convection. There have already been signs of
this taking place up in SW Kansas, where some weak convection has
pulsed up and down this morning. This activity has failed to
maintain itself for any extended period of time despite the better
moisture, which may be a sign of things to come for the area in
the coming hours. If any elevated convection can tap into observed
MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and very steep low to mid level
lapse rates of 8-10 deg C, they could be strong to marginally
severe with gusty winds and hail the main threats. Overall,
there`s only about a 10-15% chance from 4-8 PM across the eastern
and southern Panhandles, generally east of a hypothetical Guymon
to Amarillo line.

Tomorrow will be warm once again as upper level ridging spreads
towards the Plains region, centered over the southwest CONUS. Any
moisture left over should be scoured away, resulting in no
precipitation to speak of. High temperatures will climb to the 90s
again, and overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The pattern for Thursday through the weekend into early next week
has a high chance of being dominated by a high pressure system
centered over the desert SW. The orientation of the high will be
impacted by its interact with a low pressure system centered
across the Great lakes during this same time. The interaction
between these system has a high chance of leaving the panhandles
under the influence of the high pressure but on its NE side
setting up a NW flow. This pattern is similar to the one that
occurred last week to early this week which lead to rain showers
and thunderstorms. This pattern looks to do the same as it will
allow moisture to stream back across the southern plains and allow
short wave troughs round the ridge and move across the southern
plains. This will allow for rounds of rain showers and
thunderstorms each day across the panhandles even if the chances
of any one spot seeing these being moderate to low. The overall
dynamics during this NW flow event is supportive for the formation
of a few strong to severe thunderstorms each day. The chances for
these strong storms will vary each day based on the moisture,
instability, and dynamics. What further improves confidence that
these strong storms should occur is that this event is similar to
a very recent event that produced severe weather in the
panhandles. Now there is some overarching uncertainty with regard
to the exact orientation of the ridge and the NW flow. There is a
chance that the high pressure comes in stronger which will push
more of the active weather into OK proper leaving lesser activity
for the panhandles. Conversely if it is slightly weaker or
remains as forecasted then the panhandles will be more likely to
see the active weather. Temperatures for Thursday through
Saturday will have a high chance of being hot with highs in the
90s to 100s. These temperatures are then likely to cool down
Sunday as a cold front passes across the region with the cooler
conditions lasting to mid week. The passage of the front should
only impact the temperatures with the chance for rain shower and
thunderstorms remaining across the panhandles. This passage of the
cold front could be a sign that even more active weather could
arrive in the panhandles for next work week as the short waves
trough becomes more robust. However the uncertainty of the
pattern does not lend much confidence to that prediction beyond
active weather has higher odds than not of continuing.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are favored at all sites for the 18z TAF period.
Some scattered mid to low clouds may move in behind the cold front
this afternoon, but any thicker ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds. This front could also produce a stray storm or two
near KGUY or KAMA this afternoon after 21z, but this only has a
10-15% chance of occurring. Otherwise expect winds to become
mostly light and variable overnight.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  94  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  61  97  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              58  94  62  91 /  10   0   0  20
Borger TX                  65  98  69 100 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              64  98  66  99 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  64  93  64  96 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               64  92  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 59  95  62  94 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  60  96  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                64  96  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                63  96  67  95 /  10   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   64  94  67  96 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                65  93  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Wellington TX              66  94  67  98 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38