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FXUS64 KAMA 270539 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early
morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die
down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge
build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather
benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only
in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to
start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high
temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. However
behind the scenes, models are expecting a stationary low to slowly
set up just to our west with a stationary high building over the
Gulf Coast. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid
levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly
direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the
Panhandles. This is where weather could become interesting as many
of the CAMs are expecting this flow shift to occur early enough
that we may be able convect and create weak isolated thunderstorms
for Monday evening. Confidence in this potential isn`t the best
with the southeast Panhandles having the best chances at 15 to
20%. Regardless, expect for chances to get better in the overnight
as the above mentioned set up looks to stick around and funnel
more moisture up into the Panhandles.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to grown for
Panhandles this week as models continue to see the week ridge hold
a surface low just to our west for the midweek. This low will work
in tandem with a stagnate high pressure system off the Gulf Coast
creating southerly/southeasterly flow across this Panhandles. This
flow will in turn push good moisture across the Panhandles in the
lower levels with many models also see moisture advect in at the
mid level with the 700mb theata-e. As it stands, many models are
expecting PWAT values to rise near or above one inch starting
Tuesday and stay there clear through Thursday. With the moisture
in places over the Panhandle, many models expect the incoming
short-waves to move through and take advantage of said moisture by
producing thunderstorms and showers each day. Tuesday and Thursday
in particular, look to be our big days with many of the models
already seeing the strongest short-wave disturbance those
afternoons, which will increase the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandles. Of course, there
is some day to day features that may serve to inhibit or enhance
the potential, such as linger thunderstorms and showers overnight
or even stubborn low-level stratus decks holding for the day.
Regardless, decent accumulation looks to be possible across the
Panhandles with latest giving a 40% chance at bare minimum of
seeing greater than half an inch or rain by Friday. Unfortunately,
this set up looks to break down Thursday evening as models see the
southern axis of a trough push through and break down the stagnate
low. Residual moisture will hang around through the weekend, but
expect much lower chances for showers and storms with temperatures
beginning to warm back towards the 90s.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light east to southeast winds will prevail through the early
morning hours. Winds will pick up some into the 10 to 15 knot
range as they remain southeast during the day. Winds will then
back again to the east and southeast this evening, but will remain
around 10 knots. Skies are expected to remain VFR. There may be a
stray shower or thunderstorm that affects the GUY TAF site late in
this forecast, but confidence is too low to mention it in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  61  86  58 /   0  10  50  60
Beaver OK                  90  57  85  57 /   0  20  40  60
Boise City OK              86  54  83  54 /   0  10  50  60
Borger TX                  94  62  90  60 /   0  10  50  60
Boys Ranch TX              93  60  90  58 /   0  10  50  60
Canyon TX                  92  60  87  57 /   0  10  50  60
Clarendon TX               90  62  85  59 /   0  10  60  70
Dalhart TX                 88  55  85  55 /   0  10  50  50
Guymon OK                  89  55  85  55 /   0  20  50  70
Hereford TX                94  60  89  57 /   0  10  40  60
Lipscomb TX                90  59  84  59 /   0  20  40  60
Pampa TX                   91  61  84  58 /   0  10  60  70
Shamrock TX                92  62  85  59 /   0  20  60  70
Wellington TX              93  63  86  60 /   0  20  60  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...15