072
FXUS64 KAMA 191121
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A mixed bag of potential is present today for the Panhandles as
models see the ridge getting slightly flatten by a trough moving
through to our north. This flattening will open the Panhandles up
to deal with a short wave moving through on the southern end of
the trough, which in turn will see the dry line retreat slightly
west into our area. Most models expect it to set up in our far
eastern counties this afternoon which could open those areas up to
severe weather. As it stands, many models are showing the
ingredients to make for all hazard type severe thunderstorms with
MLCAPE sitting in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and 0 to 1 km shear
pushing values above 30kts. However, these same models are also
showing that usage of these ingredients is going to be very
conditional with decent CIN present at the lower-levels. The
presence of this CIN is mostly due to the lack of moisture at the
low to mid level of the atmosphere. A quick look at model sounding
continues to show that all of our moisture for the afternoon
above the 500mb level, which in turn will make for very high based
thunderstorms should we get anything at all. Added to this is the
fact that shear starts to drop off greatly once you get past 3km,
with most sounding showing only straight line speed shear present
at the upper-levels. This will make it hard to keep anything high
based sustains, which, at this time, is the more likely
development given the expected LCL heights. In this case, the
bigger threat for the day may actually come an isolated
thunderstorm producing a severe wind gust rather than multiple
supercells producing hail and/or tornadoes. Given this outlook,
have chosen to keep POP reduced for the afternoon.

As for rest of the Panhandles, confidence is high that the main
threat for today will be the heat. As it stands, models are still
expecting a lee-side low to be positioned in such a way that the
Panhandles will see good downsloping southwesterly winds. The
presence of these winds have a tendency to see temperatures
increase even more than usual, which will likely result in
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s across the Panhandles.
This effect is further amplified in places like the Canadian River
Valley and the Palo Duro Canyon, which could easily see
temperatures in the triple digits this afternoon. The heat threat
gets even worse for Monday, as most models look for a similar set
up to be present under much drier conditions. Should this trend
continue, then it is likely that places like the Palo Duro Canyon
may need a Heat Advisory with canyon floor potentially reaching
105 by Monday evening.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A trough ejects from the desert SW into the plains on Tuesday
becoming the dominate feature over the panhandles. This trough
will break the spell of hot weather that baked the panhandles on
Sunday and Monday. This will see the highs on Tuesday fall to the
80s and 90s. Winds are expected to shift to the west and remain
gusty through the day. Then late on Tuesday to early on Wednesday
a cold front associated with the trough will push through the
panhandles. This will be a dry front so it will only shift the
winds to the north and not cause any active weather. Cooler air
will settle across the panhandles for Wednesday further reducing
the temperatures to the 70s and 80s. Thursday and Friday the
pattern continues to favor a shift to a zonal flow across the
southern plains. This should help to push the cooler air out of
the panhandles allowing the highs to warm back to the 80s and 90s.
Winds during this time should follow a standard diurnal trend of
gusty from the south during the day and weak during the night.
If the winds become more southeasterly then moisture may be pushed
into the panhandles leading to daytime rain showers and
thunderstorms. The odds of this occurring do not look favorable
at this time as any moisture that does move in is likely to be
east in OK proper. By next weekend the pattern becomes hard to pin
down making the forecast less confident. There are hints that a
system may form during this time and bring active weather to the
southern plains. Conversely there is a slightly smaller chance
that a ridge will form instead bringing further dry and hot
weather to the panhandles. Regardless of outcome it seem favorable
that the pattern will shift for next weekend bringing a change in
the weather compared to mid week.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Surface winds are still expected to pick up this afternoon at all
three terminals with potential to see southwesterly gust upwards
of 30kt. Meanwhile in our east, potential still exists for severe
thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon to early evening.
However, confidence in this is still very low as most model are
seeing development be very conditions thanks to a cap at the
lower- levels. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely hold at all
terminals for the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  59  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  98  59  97  62 /  30  10   0   0
Boise City OK              93  54  94  57 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                 101  60 102  65 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              99  55  99  61 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  98  56  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               97  60  98  65 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 94  53  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  96  54  97  58 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                99  56  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  60  98  65 /  20  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   97  59  98  64 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                98  60  98  65 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              99  62 100  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11