140
FXUS64 KAMA 221738
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A cold front is moving through the Panhandles with breezy winds
behind it, but winds should taper off as the cold front moves away.
Temperatures today will be refreshing compared to what has been
experienced the past several days, with highs in the 70s to low-80s.

Low-level moisture will move in tonight in advance of a developing
lee surface low along the Rockies. Some minor visibility
restrictions and low clouds are favored through the overnight period
and perhaps into a portion of Thursday morning. The lee surface low
will strengthen throughout the day and move into the Panhandles
while a dryline rapidly pushes eastward. There is currently quite a
bit of uncertainty regarding how far east this dryline will be
pushed. This revolves around:

a) Where the dryline is located Thursday morning... will it be along
the TX/NM border, or back toward the mountains in New Mexico?;

b) The depth of the moisture, especially with eastward extent;

c) How the models handle mixing (i.e., overmixing vs. undermixing);

Even if the dryline stays in the Panhandles, another failure mode is
if the low clouds linger later into the morning hours, in which case
the cap could become an issue. But with all that said, there remains
a low chance that the dryline stays in the eastern Panhandles and
capping isn`t an issue. In that case, there exists the potential for
an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop in the easternmost
counties of the CWA. There would likely be a moderately to strongly
unstable environment with enough wind shear for storm organization,
but it may be a challenge for a thunderstorm to mature to severe
limits before it moves into western Oklahoma. If a thunderstorm can
reach severe limits, damaging winds and large hail would be the
primary threat. But the key takeaway is that confidence is very low
that there will be a thunderstorm, much less a severe thunderstorm,
in the CWA Thursday.

Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible in the western
half of the Panhandles as well, as 20-25 mph sustained winds with
gusts up to 35-40 mph are favored along with RH values between 10-
15%. A cold front will move in from the north Thursday night. Breezy
winds behind the cold front are favored as there are some decent
surface pressure rises.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The Panhandles will be behind a cold front once again on Friday as
the surface winds shift from northeasterly to southeasterly through
the day. Enjoy the highs in the 70s and 80s on Friday when possible
as a quick warmup occurs on Saturday. Once again, a dryline will
move through the Panhandles except this time there`s rather high
confidence that it will sail through the Panhandles. Breezy to windy
conditions are favored Saturday with widespread highs in the 90s.
Given the strong, downsloping winds and 850mb temperatures between
27-30C, the NBM might be a few degrees too cool. Thus, a few
locations may hit the triple digits on Saturday.
Additionally, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are once
again possible.

Another hot day is expected Sunday, but on Monday an upper-level
trough will move in from the northwest to the southeast, clipping a
portion of the Panhandles. Although no rain chances are expected
with this, a cold front should move through the Panhandles and move
through much of the state of Texas to the Gulf Coast, pushing out
any chance of quick low-level moisture return with it.

Northwesterly flow aloft develops as a robust upper-level trough
takes over the Eastern US and an upper-level ridge builds over the
Southwest US. Current deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests
that this pattern will progress some and low-level moisture may
return to the Panhandles around mid-week. This may, hopefully, begin
a more favorable pattern for thunderstorms for the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Breezy winds continue to be seen at KAMA with potential still
present to see gusts nearing 25kt. Expect these winds to slow
slightly this evening with sustained winds holding around 10 to
15 kt. Overall conditions should hold at VFR for all the
terminals. However, KAMA may have to be watch during the overnight
at potential is present for a low-level stratus deck to build in
and last till the morning hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
afternoon into the early evening for the western combined
Panhandles, especially the far western Texas Panhandle. The day will
start with very high relative humidity values, as high as 100%, but
those values should quickly drop through the day. Sustained winds of
20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph with minimum relative humidity
values between 10% to 15% are favored. Thus, RFTI values between 5
to 8 are favored. A cold front is expected to move in from the north
Thursday night with breezy winds behind the front.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible again
Saturday afternoon into the early evening for the western combined
Panhandles. Currently forecasting surface winds between 15 to 20 mph
with minimum relative humidity values between 5% to 10%, but
sustained winds may be as high as 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 40
to 45 mph.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                57  93  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  53  94  55  80 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              51  89  47  77 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  58  96  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              57  96  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  56  92  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               57  91  57  83 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 51  90  48  80 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  53  92  50  79 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                56  96  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                55  91  57  80 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   56  92  55  80 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                56  90  57  83 /  10  20   0   0
Wellington TX              58  92  58  85 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11