641
FXUS64 KAMA 041159
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
659 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The upper level pattern has begun its transition from zonal flow
with perturbations each day into jet stream ridge development
over the area. Tuesday is still subject to some lower level
activity, with a surface boundary moving across the CWA followed
by the corresponding surface low. By Wednesday a small break from
our active patten should finally commence.

Through this morning... Fog and low level clouds have advected
from the southeast. Similar to yesterday night`s conditions, the
fog is generally patchy with only some isolated areas seeing dense
fog. The should not have any major impacts on travel early this
morning, and by sunrise conditions should begin to improve.

By the late morning, a shortwave trough will enter the region
from the northwest with a surface low following suit. Short range
model guidance suggest this will have a small impact on high
temperatures today. Guidance has converged on 850 mb temperatures
ranging between 26-28 degrees Celsius during peak diurnal heating
hours. Therefore, highs around the combined Panhandles today
should range between the upper 80`s (in the north) and mid 90`s
(in the south). With the Palo Duro Canyon and parts surrounding
approaching 100 degrees. A feint chance for thunderstorms exist
once again in the southern Texas Panhandle today. Moisture should
be more limited this afternoon compared to previous days and is
mostly restricted to the lower levels again. The timing of the
front does not line up with the convective initiation timeframe, so
forcing is absent in the afternoon hours. Still, pulse type
convection cannot be ruled out later today but the odds of a storm
sustaining and becoming severe are quite low. PoPs will remain
below mentionable criteria (<15%), but a few areas in our southern
zones are forecast for isolated convection where the coverage is
10% at best.

Tomorrow, thunderstorm chances should expire completely and
temperatures will range between similar values from the expected
highs today. Models still agree upon 850 mb temperatures ranging
in the mid to upper 20`s (in Celsius). Surface winds should
principally be breezy from the south and southeast.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For Thursday through Monday, upper level ridging prevails over
the region as well as the western states while corresponding
upper level troffing evolves across the eastern states. This
places our forecast area in some semblance of northwest flow
aloft, which is generally a favorable pattern for steering storms
eastward and southeastward from the higher terrain of southeast
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. While medium range models are in
basic agreement on the overall pattern, they, along with ensemble
members, differ on location of the ridge axis relative to the
southern high plains as well as how long the pattern lasts before
potentially changing again. Given the general predicted pattern,
the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return to the OK and
TX Panhandles late Thursday afternoon through Monday. Specific
details regarding highest versus lowest pops, precipitation
amounts, potential for severe storms on one or more days as well
as locations will be refined as time gets closer to each day in
the extended periods. That said, NBM temperatures and pops seem
plausible based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were
included in all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

LIFR/IFR conditions persist at AMA and DHT for the start of the
12Z TAF period. However, the fog and low clouds are forecast to
lift in the next couple of hours. The wind direction at all sites
will be important for moisture retention, and in the most recent
observations it has been teetering between southeast and southwest
especially at AMA and DHT. A TEMPO group has been given to these
two sites, to catch the potential infrequencies and changes in
flight categories. At GUY, fog is not as much of a concern but
low ceilings may keep MVFR conditions around for the next hour.
That being said, current satellite and ASOS observations suggest
that the coverage of the ceilings are improving quicker that their
heights, so VFR conditions may even come to fruition before 13Z.

Later on today, VFR conditions will prevail and breezy to strong
surface winds are expected at all sites. Sustain winds will range
between 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts from the north this
afternoon. By the evening and overnight hours, the winds will
veer and become northeasterly.

Rangel


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  64  94  66 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  89  61  97  66 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              88  58  94  62 /   0  10   0   0
Borger TX                  97  65  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              96  64  98  66 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  94  64  93  64 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               93  64  92  66 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 91  59  95  62 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  89  60  96  64 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                96  64  96  64 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                89  63  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   91  64  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                93  65  93  66 /   0  10   0   0
Wellington TX              97  66  94  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55