Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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280 FXUS63 KAPX 291844 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 244 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances of frost tonight and possibly Thursday night in typical cold spots of the interior of eastern upper and northern lower Michigan. - Occasional small chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. - Slowly warming temperatures the next several days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Pattern synopsis: Upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows amplified flow over northern parts of the CONUS, with an upper trough just exiting the Great Lakes region and an upper ridge over the northern Plains. That upper ridge will move east, building into our neck of the woods. At the surface, high pressure over western Ontario will build into the western Lakes, then drift across us to near Detroit by the end of the short term period. Forecast concerns: Very few, really. Dry and subsident flow will keep our skies free of clouds tonight and Thursday. Clear skies and light winds set up nearly ideal radiating conditions tonight, and the typical cold spots of interior northern lower and eastern upper have a couple hour period right before daybreak where patchy frost could form. Any of that would be very localized and not at all widespread. Otherwise Thursday looks like a near carbon copy of today, with slightly warmer temperatures - a trend that will continue into the long term described below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Sharp upper trof exits the east coast to wrap up the work week. A sharp ridge builds over our heads on Friday. That also heads east this weekend, replaced by relatively zonal flow across the northern conus. There will be a few ripples in this flow, especially on Saturday and perhaps Monday night. Toward the end of the forecast, the flow become more amplified again, especially upstream along the US-Canada border. At the surface, high pressure is overhead Thu night, before pushing se-ward and eventually taking on a Bermuda high configuration. An initial cold front looks to wash out in the area this weekend. Another cold front might get dragged into the region Monday night-ish. Forecast: Dry with moderating temps to close out the work week. Could still be some frost in the typical interior cold spots on Thursday night, but not as much as tonight. A touch of return flow gets going Friday behind the slowly departing high, which will help boost temps a bit. Precip chances return Saturday, as both a decaying cold front and ejecting shortwave enter the area. That will interact with diurnal heating to generate convection chances. However, surface dew points will struggle to rebound much, generally in the 40s. That will sharply limit available instability, and will only mention showers, without thunder. Max temps on both Fri and Sat will range thru the 70s, with Saturday a touch cooler than Friday. A bit of ridging pokes back in from the se after that front washes out, which will again limit precip chances on Sunday. The next front looks to have a bit more punch, bringing precip chances (including thunderstorms) mainly on Monday and Mon night. Uncertainty increases further after that, but a fairly quick return to return flow and increasing moisture is a possibility by midweek. Max temps Sunday and beyond look warmer, mid 70s to mid 80s in most areas. Some beaches will be cooler thru the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR through the period (and likely the next several periods) with high pressure at the surface and aloft. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JHV LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JHV