755
FXUS63 KAPX 021732
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
132 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers end this morning.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Late Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

- A wet pattern and cooler temperatures will linger through the
  end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid level shortwave trough and weak surface low in the process of
working northeast across the southeast Lakes region early this
morning. Broad deformation and deep layer moisture convergence on
their northwest flank was responsible for quite the widespread rain
event this past evening into early this morning...especially for
areas south of M-32. Enhanced forcing and attendant rains working
slowly east, with just a few less organized showers falling across
northwest lower and portions of eastern upper Michigan.

Mid level heights will slowly rebound in wake of departing trough
this afternoon into tonight, with weak surface high pressure
building overhead in response.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any lingering shower
concerns.

Details:

Current shower activity expected to come to an end heading into this
morning as primary forcing mechanism exits stage right. Much of the
day for most of the area will remain dry thereafter. However, could
see just enough forced low level wind/moisture convergence across
interior eastern upper Michigan (lake breeze convergence axis) and
across our southeast areas to perhaps kick off a few diurnally
enhanced scattered light rain showers this afternoon (although those
building mid level heights argue otherwise). Will introduce just
some "smallish" shower potential in these areas. Again, not a big
deal, and most areas will remain dry this afternoon. Clouds will
decrease from west to east today, although it may take until evening
to see any appreciable clearing for areas on the south side of the
sunrise side. Highs today expected to top out in the lower and
middle 70s for most, with just a touch cooler readings right near
those big waters.

Dry conditions expected tonight as mid level heights continue to
increase across the region. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy
early morning fog and stratus...especially in areas that experienced
better rain this past evening. Look for lows tonight to bottom out
in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Warm temperatures with a generally
wet pattern will linger through mid week as a few rounds of rain
chances move through. The first one will start to approach Monday
late afternoon. Upper level support should be induced via stronger
convection over the north central plains Monday afternoon, meaning a
weak shortwave created from stronger storms to our west could help
continue thunder chances Monday night as it moves over northern MI.
The second round will be aided by a slightly deeper shortwave and
healthy moisture advection Tuesday afternoon. Due to this, slightly
higher thunderstorm chances exist for Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average.

Starting mid week (~Wednesday), a deep upper level closed low over
Manitoba CA will start to slide to the southeast. This will result
in cooler temperatures (~5 to 8 degrees below average), clouds, and
widespread stratiform rain chances through next weekend. As upper
level heights fall and a likely weakening surface low moves through,
thunder could be possible at times.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: For thunderstorm chances
Monday night into Tuesday, currently, model soundings show mainly a
few hundred j/kg of elevated instability Monday night into early
Tuesday which would limit severe attributes to storms overnight.
However, potentially anomalous moisture amounts could be advected up
to northern MI during this time. 70% to 80% of global ensemble
members show PW values rising to the 90th percentile or above by
early Tuesday morning (at least 1.2"). More moisture and upper level
heights continuing to fall (from the second shortwave approaching)
will result in more instability to work with Tuesday afternoon.
Healthy shear could also aid in organizing some storms that form.
There is still decent uncertainty with what Tuesday afternoon will
look like due to important details needing to be resolved first
(dependency of upper level shortwaves on diurnal convection in the
plains). Nonetheless, rain chances will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SCT-BKN 007-015 still remains across northeast lower, while
elsewhere FEW-SCT020-050 primarily. Expect slow clearing to
continue from west to east this afternoon. Light and variable to
light southeast winds expected tonight, with FG development the
main concern. Highest confidence in KAPN seeing substantial FG,
and such reflected in the TAF with 1/2 mi VIS. Lesser
confidence across other TAF terminals. Patchy to areas of FG
also likely from Gladwin county up towards Otsego. FG clears out
during the late morning hours on Monday with otherwise dry
conditions most areas through this TAF cycle.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD