Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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274 FXUS63 KAPX 221748 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 148 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms chances this evening for eastern upper. - High swim risk across most Lake Michigan counties. - Showers in the eastern U.P. Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Potent shortwave troughing will continue to lift across the northern Great Lakes over Ontario today as broader troughing settles over most of the north-central CONUS. This system will become increasingly vertically stacked with time as the associated sub- 990mb surface cyclone pivots from the Upper Midwest into Ontario later today. Forecast Details: Thunders linger into the morning hours -- Multiple thunderstorm line segments continue to work across northern Michigan and the Great Lakes waters. These storms are expected to sustain themselves over the next several hours into the morning amidst elevated instability on the order of 500-1,000 J/kg and strong shear in excess of 40 kts. This environment will continue to support strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and small hail. Most storms will track across areas that have already been convectively overturned so far tonight, giving low confidence in severe wind gusts reaching the surface with any storms -- although a non-zero severe threat still remains, including any storms along/out ahead of remnant outflow boundaries. Storm chances will diminish into mid/late morning as favorable forcing becomes increasingly displaced from northern Michigan. Otherwise, a short break in precip chances may materialize before additional scattered showers return to the eastern U.P. into this evening. High swim risk for most Lake Michigan counties -- Southwest to south- southwest winds around 15 kts with gusts between 20-30 kts will bring a high swim risk to most Lake Michigan counties today due to dangerous waves and currents. The exceptions will be Grand Traverse and Antrim counties as Grand Traverse Bay will be sheltered from strongest winds/waves, and is expected to remain below criteria. Regardless of swim risk for your area, cold water temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s Fahrenheit will still bring the risk of hypothermia for those in the water without proper equipment/protection. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Cutoff low set to be slowly moving east from Hudson Bay on Thursday as ridging begins to intrude into the Great Lakes. Weak wave riding progressive flow regime coupled with lingering moisture in conjunction with the departing low will be enough to spark some diurnal showers across eastern upper through the afternoon on Thursday. Lesser moisture concentration and aggressive mixing should erode most shower chances across northern lower. Ridging axis moves overhead for Friday, with southerly flow dominating. Result will be a return of summer like warmth as highs rocket back into the upper 70s and lower 80s (perhaps mid 80s for some). Next rain chances show up as shortwave trough and associated surface low pass through Lake Superior Friday night into Saturday morning. On its heels, another wave passes into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. Current thinking is that this wave stays well to the south and we hold on the drier side of things. Primary Forecast Concerns: Thursday Showers in the Eastern Yoop: Diurnal instability progged at several hundred joules should be able to generate some showers in the eastern Yoop Thursday afternoon with the help of a subtle perturbation passing through the upper Great Lakes. Unidirectional flow and some speed shear creates more of a linear hodograph. Outflow dominant showers and some thunder appear possible, and perhaps a storm approaches marginally severe status at peak heating. Primary hazards will be gusty winds and small hail. Weekend Outlook: Warm temperatures expected Friday as ridging moves overhead with southerly flow. Given 850mb temps in the low to mid teens Celsius and good mixing, should be enough to rocket temps well into the 80s across northern lower and low-to-mid 70s in the eastern Yoop. Quick moving area of low pressure passes into Lake Superior Friday night, and its attendant cold frontal boundary is progged to bring about some scattered showers into the overnight hours Friday night. Given the efficiency of mixing Friday, might make instability hard to come by, so not a lot of stock being put into this rain chance. Big story will be the more seasonable air in its wake, with highs falling back into the 60s and 70s for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Presence of high pressure could lead to some pretty aggressive diurnal cooling responses in the overnight hours this weekend, so may need to watch for an outside frost / freeze threat if clear skies can accompany decoupling winds. Larger system set to pass to the south to close out the holiday weekend. Dry northerly flow from high pressure over Ontario should stunt northward advance of rainfall associated with this system, so my inkling is that the rest of the holiday weekend probably holds dry, save for perhaps a shower or two near Saginaw Bay Sunday night into Monday owing to their closer proximity to the passing low. All in all, definitely a much drier weekend than not. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Skies generally MVFR for NW lower and eastern upper terminals and VFR for NE lower terminals this afternoon. MVFR cigs will linger for the aforementioned terminals likely through 21/22Z, with slight chances for cigs to linger through 00Z. A very weak FROPA will try to produce VCSH mostly near KCIU/KPLN/KTVC from 22Z to 04Z as it moves across the region. Winds SW generally 15kts with G20-30kts will veer to W AOB 10kts after 03Z. Gusty west winds will build again Thursday after 16Z. Mostly VFR conditions Thursday. Very low chances for any -HZ/FG tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 020-025-031-095-096-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...ELD