Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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988 FXUS63 KAPX 281410 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1010 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for a few showers and t-storms today. - Potential for frost Wednesday and Thursday nights? && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Low pressure is well to our ne, over Quebec. Area continues to see cold advection and cyclonically curved flow, behind the departing low. Moisture is still present here, with surface dew points near 50f to the mid 50s. However, 40s are upstream over northern Ontario. Mid and high clouds have thinned more than expected, and diurnal heating is making some inroads. But clouds are more extensive over western upper MI and much of WI, thanks to a digging shortwave. That wave pivots toward central Lake MI and southern lower MI; it`s along that path where the best forcing will be found today. But will a bit more heating than earlier planned, one could see the south third of this forecast area reaching 500-700j/kg of MlCape. Scattered showers and a few TSRA are expected to develop this afternoon. Perhaps some small hail (given deep cool airmass) or brief gusty winds could form with stronger cells. But deep shear is anemic, and don`t see a svr threat here. Max temps need to get boosted a touch, deeper into the 60s and lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Great Lakes region will continue to be under the influence of upper-level troffing through the period, leading to unsettled weather (especially during peak heating today) and cooler than normal temperatures. Showers that had been over the area for much of yesterday into the nighttime hours are finally exiting the area to the east early this morning. These shower are associated with a weakening impulse within the mean long-wave trof over much of eastern North America. Another impulse is currently dropping into the mean trof across the extreme upper Midwest. The forcing with this feature will arrive later this afternoon into this evening. The thermal troffing aloft associated with this feature, combined with diurnal heating will result in several hundred J/kg of CAPE this afternoon (especially NE Lower MI). This should result in showers and a few thunderstorms, but strong storms are not anticipated. Precipitation chances wane tonight as the disturbance shifts to the east later tonight and diurnal instability is lost. Temperatures today will top out warmer than yesterday (mainly in the 60s), but still be a few degrees cooler than normal. Look for overnight lows in the 40s, which is about where they should be for late May. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Primary longwave trough axis will pass through the region, as longwave troughing as a whole centered over northeastern North America is forced eastward by an amplifying ridge ahead of another digging trough intruding into the northern Rockies. Result will be ample subsidence building into the Great Lakes region midweek and beyond as the ridge axis moves overhead by Friday. Closer to the surface, a stout area of high pressure will slowly move between Lake Superior and Hudson Bay, providing a very dry northerly flow initially Wednesday and Thursday before winds turn more southerly. This will lead to a climb in temperatures as we progress into the weekend, starting in the 50s and 60s Wednesday, reaching into the 70s by Friday, and perhaps into the 80s across northern lower by Sunday. Dry airmass and lowering dewpoints may contribute to a handful of chilly nights Wednesday night and Thursday night, where interior locales may drop well into the 30s. Precipitation chances leak back into the picture as the aforementioned trough more or less stalls over the Canadian Prairies, bringing about more of a zonal flow to the region by the end of the weekend. Potential for any convectively charged waves to eject east of the Rockies into this corridor of quicker flow may bring about chances for showers and thunderstorms, though the intensity / coverage remains in question at this time. Primary Forecast Concerns: Frost Potential: Will have to pay close attention to dewpoint trends through the day Wednesday, as subsidence is set to scour out low level moisture in pretty quick fashion through the morning into the afternoon. Latest guidance has dewpoints falling into the upper 20s (some more aggressive guidance even mixes dewpoints into the lower 20s across northeast lower) by late Wednesday afternoon as the low level cloud deck erodes from north to south. Presence of high pressure leading to calming winds and clear skies at night will allow for rapid onset of radiational cooling processes to commence. Most guidance has temperatures dropping well into the 30s across interior locales across both northern lower and eastern upper Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Still somewhat of an uncertainty to see how much the recent rainfall supplies low level moisture responses that could cause temps to hit a wall, but given the aggressiveness of the drier air intrusion and daytime temps in the 50s and 60s, the effort to get temps below 36 degrees across the interior will be lesser. As far as Thursday goes, more low level moisture should be scoured out by the presence of high pressure, though the lack of wind may keep soil moisture relatively high in wooded areas. Regardless, another clear and calm night could lead to a localized frost threat across the interior locales. Still a ways away, but it is entirely possible for Frost Advisories to be hoisted Wednesday night across the interior. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 633 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the northern Michigan terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A spotty shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out this afternoon into this evening, but confidence/coverage is too low to carry in TAFs at this time. If a TAF is impacted by a storm, conditions may briefly fall below VFR. Northwesterly winds will be the rule this forecast period as well, with a few gusts possible this afternoon/early evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...PBB LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...DJC/PBB