531
FXUS63 KAPX 271944
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain gradually diminishing tonight.

- Chance for showers and a few t-storms Tuesday.

- Potential for frost Wednesday and Thursday nights?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Pattern/synopsis: 995mb low pressure is east of Georgian Bay,
with a sharp trof lingering back across central lower MI, just
south of M-55. Northerly surface winds are in place north of the
trof, westerly to the south. Widespread rain has been occurring
over most of the forecast area today, though exceptions in the
north (eastern upper MI) and far south, where coverage and
intensity have been less.

Forecast: Low pressure exits ne across central Quebec tonight,
and the lingering surface trof will pivot southward. As this
happens, drier air will make inroads from the north. Rain shield
has already seen some erosion along the northern edge, and that
will continue, though there could still be a stray rain shower
to drop southward out of Ontario tonight. Overall, precip will
at least partially diminish in eastern upper and part of nw
lower MI this evening (w of TVC-CAD), and in n central lower MI
overnight. Chancy pops linger in ne lower MI all the way until
morning. Have removed all mention of thunder.

Lows tonight mid 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday, a clipper-type shortwave moves se-ward toward western
Superior. This will temporarily halt the drying trend. Eastern
upper MI may see enough clearing for partly sunny skies, at
least at times. But we`ll see more clouds than sun south of the
Bridge. Still, meager late-May heating thru the clouds will
support diurnal destabilization, especially as cooler temps
arrive aloft. Expect places near Saginaw Bay to reach
300-400j/kg of MlCape, with smaller values elsewhere. A chance
for showers lingers in ne lower MI in the morning. Then, showers
should see some regeneration in the afternoon, especially in
the se. In addition, showers that pop in ne WI could move toward
nw lower MI as we head toward evening. A mention of afternoon
thunder in the far se, where perhaps some small hail will be
possible in the coolish airmass.

Highs upper 50s far north to around 70f ne lower MI.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current shortwave troughing over the
Great Lakes region will slowly progress towards the east coast at
the start of the forecast period. Elongated ridging near the
Pacific begins to build over the West Coast and makes it way
towards the CWA by the Wednesday evening time frame. Quiet
weather will persist for the first half of the long term ahead
of upstream toughing delivering additional chances of showers
next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

High pressure builds at the start of the long term period
resulting in quiet weather through the work week: Current mid-
level troughing will begin to move to the east coast Wednesday
night. A few lingering showers will remain in the area Tuesday
Evening as lingering bits of moisture hang around the CWA.
Conditions dry out this Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most areas. There is some
potential of frost Wednesday and Thursday night as clear skies
and dew points near freezing could allow radiational cooling to
drop overnight lows into the 30s, but the main threat still
primarily remains in interior locations.

Chances of precipitation return this weekend. No heavy rainfall
or severe weather expected at this time: Mid-level troughing
currently over the Gulf of Alaska will progress towards the CWA
this weekend while weakening. Aforementioned troughing is
expected to lift as it traverses the midwest, resulting in a
weakening frontal boundary as it crosses the CWA. Scattered
showers can be expected at times Saturday and Sunday, but no
heavy precipitation or severe weather appears likely at this
time due to the unorganized dynamics of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Some improvement tonight and Tuesday.

Low pressure is slowly moving away from Lk Huron, with a trof
lingering back in central lower MI. Rain will continue for much
of tonight, but will start to diminish from w to e very late
tonight, into Tuesday. Cigs and vsbys will thus improve with
time. Have all sites VFR by mid-morning Tuesday.

N to nw winds thru the forecast.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ