023
FXUS63 KAPX 231756
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
156 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today.

- Rain showers (embedded thunder?) Friday night into Saturday
  AM.

- More rain likely late weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper low centered over far northern Lake
Superior/southern Ontario will continue to pivot east over Quebec.
At the surface, the associated cyclone will follow suit underneath
favorable forcing aloft. As this system departs today into tonight,
ridging further upstream will become increasingly amplified as it
slides from the northern Great Plains over the Great Lakes by Friday
morning.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire danger today -- Rain-free weather is anticipated
across northern Michigan today as aforementioned troughing continues
to work east of the region. The main concern for the short term
period will be elevated fire danger in place today. As temperatures
warm into the mid to upper 70s for most areas south of the bridge
this afternoon, west winds will also increase to 10-15 mph with
gusts between 20-30 mph. Sunshine and aforementioned winds will aid
efficient daytime mixing, especially across areas of northeast lower
with downsloping winds from higher terrain further inland. This
mixing will drop relative humidity into the 20-30% range for most
areas today -- the exception being areas near Lake Michigan which
will likely see relative humidity stay above 30%. The combination of
warm, dry air, gusty winds, and dry fine fuels leads to elevated
fire danger across northern Michigan into this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Ridging builds towards the end of the week although energy aloft
will quickly beat down the ridge Friday night into Saturday and
scoot into northern Michigan. Frontal boundary will move through as
well associated with a dominant low over the upper Midwest. Thus,
showers overspread the region. Next system moves into the region
late weekend into early next week as an upper trough and sfc low
track into Michigan. Widespread rain possible consequently.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Heights aloft build on Friday resulting in warm weather across the
interior, cooler near the immediate coasts. This will quickly be
displaced by incoming energy Friday night into early Saturday and an
associated frontal boundary. Rain showers will be possible with some
modest wetting rains for the area. Weak elevated instability will
result in the potential for a few embedded storms, will have to keep
an eye on the degree of instability to focus on any stronger storm
threat. Winds become mildly breezy as well, especially over the
nearshore & open waters.

Short break in the action much of the rest of this weekend, then the
next system to watch will be late Sunday into early next week.
Current guidance progs an upper & sfc low moving from the Central
Plains into Michigan with widespread rain showers (occasional
embedded thunder) Sunday night into early next week. Potential
exists for a good slug of rain across the region depending on the
exact positioning of this system. Looking at ensemble guidance, GEFS
and EPS sfc low positions show a pretty favorable track for rain
across northern Michigan at this time, and thus the moderate
probabilities for >0.5" of rain. Think these solutions are
reasonable but it is worth mentioning that there is still spread in
the individual solutions which could result in less precip (some
members farther west, some farther southeast). Hints at some
instability possible Sunday night into Monday thus some embedded
convection but that will ultimately come down to the exact evolution
of this system. Right now calling for the potential for wetting
rains Sunday night into much of Monday with "cool" temps into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024
Currently VFR conditions across all terminals with skies
generally FEW250 or SKC. Winds mostly W/NW around 10 to 15kts
with G20-25kts. Winds will diminish quickly this evening,
becoming AOB 12kts by 01Z. Winds veer to N/NE after 06Z and
remain mostly light. SKies start to fill in from the W becoming
SCT-BKN100 near the end of the forecast period with winds
veering S/SE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD