680
FXUS63 KAPX 251915
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
315 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday.

- Somewhat warmer Sunday, then much cooler Memorial Day and
  much of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Synopsis/pattern: A bit of shortwave ridging develops over us
tonight, as energy (and associated convection) moves into the
central plains. Shortwave pieces (modulated by upstream
convection) will start to lift into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. At the surface, high pressure moves from IL to Lk Huron
tonight. As it continues east, return flow develops Sunday. A
surface warm front will make progress into southern lower MI
Sunday afternoon, and moistening/ascent will ramp up north of
that front.

Forecast: Clouds are finally eroding over the tip of the mitt
and the eastern UP. There is a building cu field well to our
w/nw, and some showers are progged to develop in the broader
DLH-IWD area later on. These, and associated cloud cover, will
move e to ene. There is a slight chance for a shower in
eastern upper MI after midnight. Some patchy cirrostratus will
also move in later tonight from the w, especially into western
and northern areas. Best chance for any fog tonight looks to be
in ne lower and eastern upper MI, where mixing was somewhat
limited today.

Min temps mid 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday, partial sunshine (at least) will be seen across the area
in the morning. As return flow increases, mid and high clouds
will increase from w to e from midday thru the afternoon. A band
of showers will develop and lift northward, north of the surface
warm front. Thru 8 pm, the best chance for thunder looks to
remain just downstate (Nam progged better MuCape values south of
US-10). Will bring a chance for showers to the sw third-ish of
the forecast in the afternoon/very early evening, with the
highest chance near MBL.

Max temps mostly 70s, with 60s on some of the beaches. Probably
the warmest day we see until the end of the upcoming work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Fairly progressive pattern continues
across the CONUS Sunday evening and night as the next surface low
and paired upper level trough continue to bring widespread rain and
thunderstorm chances across the state. Most of the favorable
instability remains down state, however better shear and dynamics
could still remain over northern MI. Due to this, marginal scattered
to numerous thunderstorms will likely be seen in waves, starting
with the intial surge Sunday late afternoon/evening working to
saturate from the top down. There will be some low level advection
of moisture, however most will be top down which will keep QPF
slightly lower to start Sunday evening. Most global models want to
deepen the upper level trough as it moves over northern MI, which
will keep chances for thunderstorms high through the night into
Monday morning. CAMs are just starting to show some of the activity
through Monday and do have disagreements on how long showers will
linger into Monday. Monday, the now upper level low will close off
near the U.P. and linger through mid week there. A few embedded short
waves will rotate around, reinforcing rain chances and clouds
through Tuesday. Cooler air will also move in Monday and linger
through Wednesday. Confidence is growing for upper level ridging
during the end of the work week and into next weekend, brining
drier air and warmer temperatures back.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Storm chances Sunday night
into Monday remain marginal. Most instabilty remains to our south,
as the main moisture plume can`t establish itself as far north as it
needs to with this recent progressive pattern. Healthy moisture will
still be advected into the region eventually, resulting in
widespread wetting rain chances, however severe potential is curbed
by only 100-400 j/kg of MUCAPE Sunday night through Monday. This is
not to say thunderstorms won`t occur, as scattered to numerous
storms will likely move across the region. The environment is just
less likely to product severe hail, winds, or tornados. Lightning,
heavy rain, and marginal gusty winds and small hail are all still
possible with storms however. A big questions is how long storms
chances last into Monday. CAMs are reflecting the disagreements in
global models, with some breaking convection apart as it crosses the
CWA and others continuing convection through Monday afternoon. It is
likely rain chances, clouds, and cooler temperatures will be seen
most of Monday with isolated embedded thunderstorms. We will be
watching this as CAMs continue to reveal details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Cloud cover has been stubborn to lift, but CIU/PLN/APN should
all become VFR over the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise quiet this TAF
period, with the next chance of inclement wx holding off until
late Sunday at the earliest.

Westerly breezes this afternoon, a smidge gusty, becoming light
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ