Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
081 FXUS63 KAPX 251725 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 125 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain likely with embedded thunder Sunday night, showers possible on Memorial Day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Cold front is making progress into eastern upper and ne lower MI this morning. S to se surface winds continue ahead of the boundary, turning sw to w behind it. Some post-frontal low-level moisture persists a bit behind the front, with low cigs and even some DZ over the high terrain of nw lower MI. But more emphatic clearing/drying is making inroads into the Lake MI coastal counties, west of TVC. Have slowed down the clearing trend (and the end of precip) by an hour or two in the gridded forecast. But otherwise, decreasing clouds will overspread the entire area by late afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over southeast Manitoba/western Ontario early this morning. Attendant occluded front currently in the process of crossing northern Michigan will clear to the east this morning. Mid-level heights rebound through the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure sliding from the mid-MS Valley into the western Great Lakes this afternoon into tonight. Forecast Details: Scattered to numerous rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder out there at this early hour. This activity will continue to slide east through the early morning, largely clearing the entirety of APX`s footprint by mid-morning. Upstream, a sharp clearing line in sky cover noted over eastern WI, which will follow suit from west to east across the forecast area leaving lots of sunshine area-wide this afternoon. High temperatures several degrees cooler today -- closer to normal for late May... ranging from the mid-60s to the mid-70s area-wide (warmest in downsloping areas of northeast lower). A return of mid-high cloud tonight, but with little in the way of sensible weather. Lows ranging from the mid-40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pressure gradient begins to tighten on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the mid Miss Valley. This low pressure system then moves northeast across Lake Michigan and the UP & vicinity consequent of a compact short wave moving from WI to the UP. Showers overspread the region due to the warm, moist advection and lift associated with this feature. Another fast moving upper low swings down into Michigan Tuesday-ish resulting in more showers. Dry subsident flow on the backside of this system will likely result in a drier period mid-late next week. Heights might even rise and thus warming temperatures possible. Primary Forecast Concerns: Sfc low pressure approaches Sunday evening spreading rain showers with some embedded thunderstorm chances into the overnight hours. Low pressure track looks to be across the far northwest portions of our county warning area, thus there may be a propensity to have better coverage of precipitation in this region, but it really depends on if the lift from the sfc low clips this region. Regardless...breezy and cooler conditions expected as the pressure gradient tightens, which may be especially true Monday over the land. Latest guidance suggests the upper level energy moves off to the northeast through Monday, but additional low pressure development may keep showers hanging around during the day. Another upper low drops down on Tuesday resulting in generally minor rain accumulation. This will continue the theme of breezy winds and cooler temperatures. Drier flow and rising heights mid to late week shift the pattern to one of lesser precipitation and warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Cloud cover has been stubborn to lift, but CIU/PLN/APN should all become VFR over the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise quiet this TAF period, with the next chance of inclement wx holding off until late Sunday at the earliest. Westerly breezes this afternoon, a smidge gusty, becoming light tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...JZ