Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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092 FXUS63 KAPX 260155 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 955 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. - Somewhat warmer Sunday, then much cooler Memorial Day and much of the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure remains centered over Southern Lake Michigan late this evening. Mid/high clouds are slowly increasing from west to east across Northern Michigan well in advance of a developing low pressure system over the Central Plains. Area of diminishing shower activity is moving into Western Upper Michigan...and may make a run at portions of Eastern Upper Michigan overnight. But expect our CWA will remain largely dry overnight despite increasing mid/high clouds. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Synopsis/pattern: A bit of shortwave ridging develops over us tonight, as energy (and associated convection) moves into the central plains. Shortwave pieces (modulated by upstream convection) will start to lift into the Great Lakes region Sunday. At the surface, high pressure moves from IL to Lk Huron tonight. As it continues east, return flow develops Sunday. A surface warm front will make progress into southern lower MI Sunday afternoon, and moistening/ascent will ramp up north of that front. Forecast: Clouds are finally eroding over the tip of the mitt and the eastern UP. There is a building cu field well to our w/nw, and some showers are progged to develop in the broader DLH-IWD area later on. These, and associated cloud cover, will move e to ene. There is a slight chance for a shower in eastern upper MI after midnight. Some patchy cirrostratus will also move in later tonight from the w, especially into western and northern areas. Best chance for any fog tonight looks to be in ne lower and eastern upper MI, where mixing was somewhat limited today. Min temps mid 40s to lower 50s. Sunday, partial sunshine (at least) will be seen across the area in the morning. As return flow increases, mid and high clouds will increase from w to e from midday thru the afternoon. A band of showers will develop and lift northward, north of the surface warm front. Thru 8 pm, the best chance for thunder looks to remain just downstate (Nam progged better MuCape values south of US-10). Will bring a chance for showers to the sw third-ish of the forecast in the afternoon/very early evening, with the highest chance near MBL. Max temps mostly 70s, with 60s on some of the beaches. Probably the warmest day we see until the end of the upcoming work week. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Fairly progressive pattern continues across the CONUS Sunday evening and night as the next surface low and paired upper level trough continue to bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances across the state. Most of the favorable instability remains down state, however better shear and dynamics could still remain over northern MI. Due to this, marginal scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely be seen in waves, starting with the intial surge Sunday late afternoon/evening working to saturate from the top down. There will be some low level advection of moisture, however most will be top down which will keep QPF slightly lower to start Sunday evening. Most global models want to deepen the upper level trough as it moves over northern MI, which will keep chances for thunderstorms high through the night into Monday morning. CAMs are just starting to show some of the activity through Monday and do have disagreements on how long showers will linger into Monday. Monday, the now upper level low will close off near the U.P. and linger through mid week there. A few embedded short waves will rotate around, reinforcing rain chances and clouds through Tuesday. Cooler air will also move in Monday and linger through Wednesday. Confidence is growing for upper level ridging during the end of the work week and into next weekend, brining drier air and warmer temperatures back. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Storm chances Sunday night into Monday remain marginal. Most instabilty remains to our south, as the main moisture plume can`t establish itself as far north as it needs to with this recent progressive pattern. Healthy moisture will still be advected into the region eventually, resulting in widespread wetting rain chances, however severe potential is curbed by only 100-400 j/kg of MUCAPE Sunday night through Monday. This is not to say thunderstorms won`t occur, as scattered to numerous storms will likely move across the region. The environment is just less likely to product severe hail, winds, or tornados. Lightning, heavy rain, and marginal gusty winds and small hail are all still possible with storms however. A big questions is how long storms chances last into Monday. CAMs are reflecting the disagreements in global models, with some breaking convection apart as it crosses the CWA and others continuing convection through Monday afternoon. It is likely rain chances, clouds, and cooler temperatures will be seen most of Monday with isolated embedded thunderstorms. We will be watching this as CAMs continue to reveal details. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure centered from Illinois thru Michigan will slowly slide eastward tonight. SE low level flow will strengthen on Sunday in between departing high pressure and a developing low pressure system over the Central Plains. This system will lift NE into the Western Great Lakes region by Sunday night... providing our next chance of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. VFR conditions will hold over Northern Michigan for the next 24 hours before chances of precip begin to increase Sunday evening. Light/variable winds tonight will become SE at 10 to 20 kts by Sunday afternoon with some higher gusts expected. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MLR