874
FXUS63 KAPX 300359
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1159 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of frost tonight and possibly Thursday night in
  typical cold spots of the interior of eastern upper and
  northern lower Michigan.

- Occasional small chances for showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend into next week.

- Slowly warming temperatures the next several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Current forecast largely remains on track with calm winds/clear
skies in place, allowing for efficient radiational cooling after
sunset. Have tweaked temperatures slightly cooler across the typical
cold spots of interior northern Michigan -- down into the low to mid
30s locally. With marginal temps and dry low-level air, thoughts
still align with those discussed in the short term: localized patchy
frost is possible, but confidence in any widespread frost
development is too low and precludes headline issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Pattern synopsis: Upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows
amplified flow over northern parts of the CONUS, with an upper
trough just exiting the Great Lakes region and an upper ridge
over the northern Plains. That upper ridge will move east,
building into our neck of the woods. At the surface, high
pressure over western Ontario will build into the western Lakes,
then drift across us to near Detroit by the end of the short
term period.

Forecast concerns: Very few, really. Dry and subsident flow
will keep our skies free of clouds tonight and Thursday. Clear
skies and light winds set up nearly ideal radiating conditions
tonight, and the typical cold spots of interior northern lower
and eastern upper have a couple hour period right before
daybreak where patchy frost could form. Any of that would be
very localized and not at all widespread.

Otherwise Thursday looks like a near carbon copy of today, with
slightly warmer temperatures - a trend that will continue into
the long term described below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Sharp upper trof exits the east coast to wrap up
the work week. A sharp ridge builds over our heads on Friday. That
also heads east this weekend, replaced by relatively zonal flow
across the northern conus. There will be a few ripples in this flow,
especially on Saturday and perhaps Monday night. Toward the end of
the forecast, the flow become more amplified again, especially
upstream along the US-Canada border. At the surface, high pressure
is overhead Thu night, before pushing se-ward and eventually taking
on a Bermuda high configuration. An initial cold front looks to wash
out in the area this weekend. Another cold front might get dragged
into the region Monday night-ish.

Forecast: Dry with moderating temps to close out the work week.
Could still be some frost in the typical interior cold spots on
Thursday night, but not as much as tonight. A touch of return flow
gets going Friday behind the slowly departing high, which will help
boost temps a bit. Precip chances return Saturday, as both a
decaying cold front and ejecting shortwave enter the area. That will
interact with diurnal heating to generate convection chances.
However, surface dew points will struggle to rebound much, generally
in the 40s. That will sharply limit available instability, and will
only mention showers, without thunder. Max temps on both Fri and Sat
will range thru the 70s, with Saturday a touch cooler than Friday.

A bit of ridging pokes back in from the se after that front washes
out, which will again limit precip chances on Sunday. The next front
looks to have a bit more punch, bringing precip chances (including
thunderstorms) mainly on Monday and Mon night. Uncertainty increases
further after that, but a fairly quick return to return flow and
increasing moisture is a possibility by midweek. Max temps Sunday
and beyond look warmer, mid 70s to mid 80s in most areas. Some
beaches will be cooler thru the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the issuance period.
Clear/sunny skies are expected into Thursday night with high
pressure in place. Calm winds tonight will increase some Thursday
morning, but will remain weak enough to allow lake breeze formation
to push inland by early afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JHV
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...DJC