Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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212 FXUS63 KAPX 300803 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 403 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional small chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. - Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend, peaking in the 70s and 80s Monday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: The bottom line of the short term of the forecast is that very quiet weather is anticipated, along with seasonable temperatures. In the bigger picture, upper-level troffing extends from eastern Canada southwest along the Appalachian Mountains. Upstream, ridging extends from the southern Plains northeast into Hudson Bay. The western Great Lakes region lies in the generally neutral upper-level flow pattern between these two axes. At the surface, high pressure is centered just west of the forecast area, placing the area under light/dry northerly flow. The upper and surface pattern will only shift slightly east during the forecast period, providing minimal change to the current conditions. Slowly rising upper-level heights support temperatures warming back to near normal levels today and weak low-level return flow developing on the back side of the surface high will keep temperatures a touch warmer tonight than they are currently. Otherwise cloud cover will be minimal/non-existent, and winds will be light enough to allow for lake breeze development. Relative humidity values in the afternoon will be quite dry once again, but light winds and post greenup conditions should preclude significant fire danger today. Look for temperatures today to top out around 70 away from the coasts, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: 500mb ridge will be overhead by Friday morning, with surface high pressure reflection holding strong over northern Ontario moving east and then south off the Carolinas. Result will be the commencement of southerly flow, drawing in warmer and slightly more moist air to the region. Highs set to spike well into the 70s by Friday. Ridge axis clears to the east, and the feature that was driving the amplifying ridging, which is a trough over the Canadian Prairies, will largely flatten out and produce a steady WSW to ENE zonal flow over the upper Great Lakes. Surface low associated with this trough will occlude heavily and close off over northern Saskatchewan, resulting in the weakening of the approaching frontal boundary as it moves into the Great Lakes. Moisture return will be meager in conjunction with the front, resulting in some scattered showers and storms later in the day Saturday. Cloud cover will considerably increase owing to a slow moving surface low (with origins from expected MCSs over Texas and Oklahoma later tonight) riding the east coast ridge into the southern Great Lakes. Result will be slightly cooler temps Saturday. This compact system should track well to our south, taking much of the rain with it, but could bring a few more showers to the Saginaw Bay region. Beyond this, ridging builds back into the picture Sunday and into Monday, and with rising 850mb temps amid renewed southerly flow , looks like temps spike well into the 80s across northern lower and upper 70s in the eastern U.P. A more robust wave (and surface low / cold front) moves into the Great Lakes later Monday into Tuesday, likely bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunder. Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Chances this Weekend into Next Week: Meager forcing and moisture return will make instability development quite a chore for the weekend, so expecting much of the time to be dry, albeit with some cloud cover for Saturday. Will keep the theme from previous forecaster and remove thunder wording Saturday. Aformentioned more potent wave will pass through Monday night, and with guidance bringing better dewpoints (more in the order of the 50s and perhaps low 60s) should bring us a better shot of showers and thunder. Persistent ridging regime set to remain in place even behind this system, with potential for another wave quickly on its heels to intrude into the upper Midwest will keep dewpoints elevated in the 50s and 60s amid upper 70s to mid 80s temps, prolonging shower and thunder potential into Tuesday and beyond. At this time, still a lot of uncertainty to dive into the intensity / frequency of these storms given this is still 5-7 days out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the issuance period. Clear/sunny skies are expected into Thursday night with high pressure in place. Calm winds tonight will increase some Thursday morning, but will remain weak enough to allow lake breeze formation to push inland by early afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PBB LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...DJC