363
FNUS53 KAPX 221042
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
642 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...Showers diminish this morning...

.DISCUSSION...Lingering showers across parts of the area will diminish this
morning, leaving rain-free weather in place for most of northern
lower Michigan today. Southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20-
30 mph are expected through this afternoon. Warmest temperatures are
expected along and east of I-75 where highs look to warm into the
70s and low 80s. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are expected west of
I-75. No RH concerns are anticipated today, but near-
critical/critical RHs will be possible across parts of northern
Michigan Thursday afternoon.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-222015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
642 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 3 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1158).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (74).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent...except 35-40 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......29 percent drier...except 23 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1558).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
642 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier...except 25 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1230).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (62).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1661).
Mixing Height.......7700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-222015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
642 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1049).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 27 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler...except 7 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (67).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent drier...except 23 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1379).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-222015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
642 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1136).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (59).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent drier...except 27 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1440).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
642 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1329).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1774).
Mixing Height.......8500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

DJC