Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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465 FNUS73 KAPX 221648 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Hopkins Creek...MIDNR National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1248 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 23. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... A quick drying trend will be seen Thursday afternoon with breezy west winds of 5 to 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph in unsheltered areas. Higher mixing heights will allow gusts to become more frequent in the afternoon hours. Rapid drying will likely be seen in the afternoon, leading to min humidities in the mid to possibly low 20s. Chances for the afternoon lake breeze to reach this location is low at this time for Thursday. Winds will diminish Thursday night with healthy overnight recoveries. Moisture amounts will start to rise Friday ahead of the next wetting rain chances. .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........26 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph. Mixing height.......6000-7600 ft AGL. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Excellent (1268.0). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........40 43 25 16 16 2 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............70 73 75 76 77 75 RH..............43 35 31 28 26 27 20 ft wind dir..W W W W W W 20 ft wind spd.. 5 5 8 10 10 10 20 ft wind gust.10 10 15 15 20 20 Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.2 Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W Transp wind spd.24 23 23 22 22 22 Vrate kt-ft.....126813751470144614111372 Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Min temperature.....Around 50. Max humidity........69 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 15 mph early in the evening becoming light. Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph early in the morning. Mixing height.......5200-6400 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1700 ft AGL early in the evening. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Excellent (831.0) decreasing to poor (46.0-209.0) early in the evening. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........4 2 11 10 8 6 4 4 5 5 6 6 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............75 74 72 68 64 60 58 56 55 53 52 52 RH..............27 29 33 39 48 60 64 66 66 69 69 69 20 ft wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 ft wind spd..10 10 8 8 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 ft wind gust.15 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mix hgt (kft)...6.4 5.2 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Transp wind dir.W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W Transp wind spd.21 18 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 Vrate kt-ft.....1153831 209 102 66 61 48 50 54 51 48 46 Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 82. Min humidity........35 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph shifting to the south around 16 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL increasing to 5100-6600 ft AGL. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (32.0-531.0) increasing to excellent (694.0) in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........7 8 12 19 29 44 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ Temp............53 57 65 76 79 81 RH..............69 64 52 39 36 35 20 ft wind dir..S S SE S S S 20 ft wind spd..2 2 6 7 7 8 20 ft wind gust.7 7 12 16 16 18 Mix hgt (ft)....400 700 2000 4000 6000 6600 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 Transport wind..W 9 SW 7 SW 10 SW 14 S 14 S 16 Vrate kt-ft.....35 47 208 531 823 1029 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT $$ Forecaster...ELD Requested by...Jeff Vasher Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414916.0/APX .DELDT 05/22/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov