930
FNUS73 KAPX 291918
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Curtis Pines Savannah...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Very dry air will remain over northern Michigan this
week. The burn site will see light northerly winds at ignition. By
early afternoon, a lake breeze from Lake Huron will result in a
light northeast wind. That will become east by very late afternoon.
The cool air off the lake will keep humidity levels higher than
places further inland. Expect relative humidity to bottom out near
30 percent mid to late afternoon.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........31 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the east
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......3400-5300 ft AGL increasing to 4500-5600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (364.0-769.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   3   4   5   3   3   1   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  62  64  66  66  67  68  66
RH..............45  39  35  33  33  32  31  33
20 ft wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.12  12  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 4.5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  N
Transp wind spd.12  14  14  13  10  9   9   8
Vrate kt-ft.....386 725 769 714 582 510 510 364
Ventrate Cat....GD  EXL EXL EXL GD  GD  GD  GD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........85 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 8 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......1900-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 200-900 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (12.0-258.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   1   3   1   2   3   3   3   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  63  60  55  52  49  48  46  45  43  42  40
RH..............34  35  42  51  54  61  60  65  68  73  76  82
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  7   7   7   5   5   5   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NE  E   SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   6   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   8
Vrate kt-ft.....258 110 53  21  14  12  12  12  12  13  15  19
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........32 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1200 ft AGL increasing to 4600-5400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (13.0-467.0) increasing to good to
                    excellent (514.0-652.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      2      9      16     23     23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     51     62     69     73     75
RH..............85     66     50     40     34     32
20 ft wind dir..SW     SW     SW     SW     SW     S
20 ft wind spd..2      2      6      7      7      7
20 ft wind gust.7      7      12     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....100    400    2300   4000   5000   5400
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  SW 13
Vrate kt-ft.....13     44     237    410    514    652
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...JZ
Requested by...Corey K. Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415300.0/APX
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov